Any US decision to drastically reduce troop levels in Afghanistan could draw countries in the region, including India

Last month, President Donald Trump reportedly directed US authorities to reduce by half the American troop presence in Afghanistan.

Any US decision to drastically reduce troop levels in Afghanistan could draw countries in the region, including India, into the 17-year-old conflict and embolden Pakistan to increase its backing for the Taliban, a report by the Rand Corporation has warned.

Last month, President Donald Trump reportedly directed US authorities to reduce by half the American troop presence in Afghanistan.

This coincided with his decision to order a complete withdrawal of US forces from Syria, and Trump has said repeatedly that he wants to end the US deployment in Afghanistan.

The report, authored for the US-based think tank by James Dobbins, former president George W Bush’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Laurel E Miller, former acting special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and former defence officials Jason H Campbell and Sean Mann, said US relations with Afghanistan’s most-important neighbours such as Pakistan are “at their lowest point since 2001”. Key players in the region such as Russia, Iran, India and Uzbekistan “have a history of support for Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara warlords” in Afghanistan and could be drawn further into the conflict in the event of a sudden US withdrawal, the report said. “These relationships will likely be reinforced as the (Afghan) central government’s financial base collapses, its writ weakens, and its cohesion erodes,” it said.

Russia and Iran have “generally supported the Kabul government” since 2001, but “have provided limited aid to the Taliban as a hedge” in recent years, it added. “Pakistan has long tolerated and facilitated use of its territory by the Taliban.

In the event of a precipitous US withdrawal, Pakistan will likely become more open in its backing,” the report said.

A sudden drawdown of US troops, the report said, would have other consequences, such as North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces also leaving, US and international civilian presence sharply reducing, external economic and security assistance diminishing, the government in Kabul losing influence and legitimacy, and groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State gaining additional scope to organise and carry out terror attacks against US regional and homeland targets.

The Taliban would also lose “interest in negotiating peace with the US” and the group would extend its control over territory and population while Afghanistan could descend into a “wider civil war”, the report said.“That there is no military solution to the war in Afghanistan has become a commonplace. But this is, at best, only half true. Winning may not be an available option, but losing certainly is. A precipitous departure, no matter how rationalised, will mean choosing to lose,” the report concluded.