At present, there are 18 countries, including India, with over 14,000 cases. India Today Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) analyses how India fares compared to the other 17 countries when they had similar number of cases. The data of people who recovered from coronavirus infections shows India in a better position than many countries

by Nikhil Rampal

Late on Saturday evening, the total number of coronavirus cases in India inched towards the 15,000-mark; the death toll was nearing 500. This made India among a handful of countries to have reported such a large number of cases.

According to the health ministry, by 4 pm on April 18, India had 14,378 cases of coronavirus infections and 480 deaths a case fatality ratio (CFR) of 3.3 per cent.

At present, there are 18 countries, including India, with over 14,000 cases. India Today Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) analyses how India fares compared to the other 17 countries when they had similar number of cases.

Better Than UK, Worse Than US


A comparison of these countries shows that India is somewhere in the middle with the 9th highest CFR. At 15,000 cases, Germany had the lowest COVID-19 deaths. When Germany had recorded 15,320 cases, it had 44 deaths (0.28 per cent fatality rate).

The fatality rate at 15,000 in Russia was 0.82 per cent, followed by the United States at 1.46 per cent. Canada (1.64 per cent) and Turkey also had a CFR of less than 2 per cent when they had crossed the 15,000-mark.

Countries that followed are China (2.1 per cent), Switzerland (2.25 per cent), Portugal (2.8 per cent), Austria (2.9 per cent) and India (3.3 per cent). The rest of the countries had a CFR above 4 per cent when they reached 15,000 cases.

France and Spain had 4 per cent CFR at this stage, while Brazil, Iran and the United Kingdom had a CFR above 5 per cent. Belgium and Italy had a CFR of 6.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent respectively.

At 15,000 cases, the number of deaths was the highest in the Netherlands. Around 1,490 people had succumbed by the time the Netherlands reported 15,821 COVID-19 cases.

Recoveries

The data of people who recovered from coronavirus infections shows India in a better position than many countries. Out of 14,378 cases in India, 1,992 people had recovered a recovery rate of 13.85 per cent.

Austria, which shares its borders with some of the most affected countries such as Italy and Germany, has almost as many cases as India 14,595. Of these, more than 10,000 have recovered or been discharged from hospitals a recovery rate of 70 per cent.

Iran had a recovery rate of 30 per cent when it reached 15,000 cases, Canada had 19 per cent and Belgium 16 per cent.

Interestingly, Germany, which had the lowest fatality rate at 15,000 cases, also had the lowest recovery rate. So is the case with the US and Brazil (0.79 per cent) and the UK (0.87 per cent).

Note of Caution

Fatality and recovery rates from an ongoing pandemic are dynamic in nature and can be tricky. The purpose of this article was to compare India’s position with other countries at 15,000 cases in order to have a common denominator. The spike or slide in cases depends on how a country handles the situation.

For instance, the US had a fatality rate of 1.46 per cent. However, the current situation in the country is the worst with more than 7 lakh infected and over 38,000 deaths. The death rate as of April 18, Saturday, stood at 5 per cent.

Also, Germany, which had a low recovery rate at 15,000 cases currently has 60 per cent of its COVID-19 patients cured showing the effectiveness of the govt.

Epidemiologists in the UK have also cautioned regarding death rate calculations since the pandemic has not ended and the figures are ever-changing.