New Delhi and Moscow need candid conversations on the uncertainty in Afghanistan, India-China friction and "Indo-Pacific" nomenclature

As chief strategic and defence policymakers in India and Russia sit down to draw the road map ahead, a few challenges require candid conversations. These include the uncertainty in Afghanistan, India's troubled relationship with China and differences over the "Indo-Pacific" nomenclature vis-à-vis Moscow's insistence on Asia-Pacific. Credit: Reuters Photo

As chief strategic and defence policymakers in India and Russia sit down to draw the road map ahead, a few challenges require candid conversations. These include the uncertainty in Afghanistan, India's troubled relationship with China and differences over the "Indo-Pacific" nomenclature vis-à-vis Moscow's insistence on Asia-Pacific. Credit: Reuters Photo

A major diplomatic initiative between India and Russia is set to be formalised next week in the format of a 2+2 dialogue. The new template in the bilateral ties carries the potential of injecting new dynamism and providing renewed thrust to this seven-decade-old relationship.

Over the past few years, despite the annual leadership summits, warmth in the bilateral relations was missing. The 2+2 format of dialogue on December 6 results from a decision arrived by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this year and will be held ahead of the 21st edition of the summit, last hosted by Russia in 2019.

There is considerable excitement in the strategic community as to what makes President Putin travel to New Delhi, his second such sojourn since the global health pandemic. After meeting with President Joe Biden at Geneva this summer, the Russian President avoided travelling for the G20 and rescheduled a trip to China.

The 2+2 format meeting with Russia will introduce another facet to New Delhi's diplomatic/strategic calendar of engagements. Currently, India holds similar 2+2 format meetings with Japan, the United States and Australia, all members of the Quad. Now, New Delhi agreeing to host one with Moscow should open up a new vista in the region and Asia when the geopolitical landscape is changing.

The summit between Modi and Putin and 2+2 between External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu would succeed the annual inter-government meeting between the defence ministers.

There is plenty on the table to be discussed at each of these engagements - the situation in Afghanistan and exchange views on interactions in multilateral meetings like BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Russia-India-China trilateral.

While the relationship with Russia, characterised as a "Privileged Strategic Partnership", remained on course, it lost much of the steam as India deepened its ties with the United States. The upcoming 2+2 and the summit following Monday should provide an opportunity to underscore traditional strengths in bilateral relations, especially in the area of defence, with an estimated 65 per cent of Indian armed forces still using equipment of Russian origin.

The latest in this series is the $5.4 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) contract for the supply of five S-400 air defence missile systems, deliveries for which are understood to have started. The deal comes with a risk of India attracting sanctions from the United States under its Countering American Adversaries through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA. The 2018 missile pact remains an eyesore for the American establishment.

The Russians can open up trade by joining the 'Make in India' campaign in the military-industrial sector. A joint venture factory at Korwa, in the Amethi district of Uttar Pradesh, to produce 7.5 lakh Kalashnikov assault rifles is the latest example of cooperation heralded by the Brahmos missiles.

There is a distinct possibility of expanding military and strategic engagement as talks move across several fronts. These encompass upgrading military exercises, leasing another nuclear submarine, more joint projects, and bilateral reciprocal logistics pacts like India has with Australia, France, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and the United States.

The lower trajectory of New Delhi-Moscow relations can be altered as both sides remain in touch at the bilateral level and multilateral fora. In pursuit of its 'strategic autonomy' mantra, India strives to find a balance in ties with Russia as its relations with the United States grew during the corresponding period.

As chief strategic and defence policymakers in India and Russia sit down to draw the road map ahead, a few challenges require candid conversations. These include the uncertainty in Afghanistan, India's troubled relationship with China and differences over the "Indo-Pacific" nomenclature vis-à-vis Moscow's insistence on Asia-Pacific.

With the United States abruptly pulling out from Afghanistan and the Taliban making a comeback, the world awaits a clearer picture of Kabul's emerging model of government. India supports an inclusive regime that respects the rights of minorities, women and children and an assurance that the country does not offer a platform to terror groups amid concerns over the wide footprint of Pakistan in the war-torn country.

It is here that Russia weighs in. The country is among the few with a diplomatic presence even after the swift turn of events. The country also remained part of the troika arrangement with Islamabad drafted into the extended format, and India kept away from the table. Another disturbing dimension is the increase in exchanges between militaries of Russia and Pakistan with hardware supplies.

On the other hand, Moscow- Beijing ties are increasing, and both sides are working together on global issues. The growing strategic engagement came when India's relations with China dipped sharply following the continuing standoff in the Himalayan plateau since April 2020.

Interestingly, at the recent Russia-India-China meeting, the joint statement of ministers expressed support to China, the host of the March 2022 Winter Olympics. The Indian position is different and moves New Delhi away from the US-led diplomatic boycott initiative to highlight conditions of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang province of China.

In the meantime, another confrontation is developing over the situation around Ukraine, with the West watching Moscow's moves in the region. Reports emanating from western capitals suggest the possibility of a military operation from Russia inside Ukraine, a charge rebutted by Russia. Moscow reiterates the course being adopted is in pursuit of the 2015 Minsk Package of Agreements.

These issues are illustrative of the changing nature of discourse and form the backdrop at these meetings.