The strategic clarity of India’s punitive strikes on Balakot, one of Jaish-e-Muhammed’s biggest camps in undisputed Pakistan, has been somewhat buried under the bilateral noise campaign that followed. There has to be a whole of government approach from MEA to finance to military, specialists who work on the same job for years, not roused after every terror strike

by Indrani Bagchi

Are you watching an ad for a Pakistani tea company where a captive Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman is endorsing the Pak army, and scratching your head? You are not alone.

The strategic clarity of India’s punitive strikes on Balakot, one of Jaish-e-Muhammed’s biggest camps in undisputed Pakistan, has been somewhat buried under the bilateral noise campaign that followed. That night, India not only struck deep inside Pakistan for the first time since 1971, but also tore through the nuclear “lakshmanrekha” Pakistan had drawn to make India believe that terror attacks had no military cost. India’s action showed both political and strategic courage.

Pakistan retaliated as it had to, no surprises there. Their targeting of Indian military installations with the certainty of escalation showed the deep gash India had made to their strategy and their sense of self. It was sheer luck that Abhinandan fell on their side.

In the subsequent days however, the cacophony of the India-Pakistan kabuki in the twitter and toxic TV age played out in such a way as to obscure the essential takeaway from those first actions. After Uri, India introduced uncertainty into Pakistani calculations. Balakot only strengthened it – in effect, India has turned both LoC and the nuclear threshold into variables from constants. Whether Pakistan acknowledges it or not, this has cut deep.

There is virtually no country that did not green light India’s right to avenge Pulwama. FATF is surely but slowly cutting off Pakistan’s terror oxygen. The cruellest hour was in the OIC, where Sushma Swaraj addressed the plenary, the first time in 50 years. The day before the plenary India sent a top level official to the OIC leadership to ask if they were still comfortable with it given Pakistan’s place in the organisation. The answer was an unequivocal yes, even from Pakistan’s closest allies. Yes, many thought Imran Khan smelt of roses by returning Abhinandan – they were not to know the severe pressure the Pak army was under to do so.

Pakistan is currently following a well-trodden path – arresting JeM and LeT leaders and cadres, bunging them in jail and waiting for the heat to subside. They might have to sacrifice Masood Azhar to UN sanctions, but hey, Hafiz Saeed has been running tame despite a bounty on him for years.

But they have unleashed a disinformation war orchestrated by their most accomplished actor, the ISI. The Indian government and TV (I make a deliberate distinction here) have played right into their hands. The foreign secretary’s initial statement was pitch perfect. It went steadily downhill from there. During Doklam, there was a strict rein on loose talk by politicians and TV. This time, lurid fantasies are political statements and anonymous opinion by spook agencies headlines. It has been a relentless “open-mouth-change-feet” parade by ministers, opposition and hyperventilating TV anchors.

The government is struggling to refute ever more outrageous claims by the Pak army – no, we didn’t lose a Sukhoi, no, our subs are not in Pakistani waters, no, our missiles are not on the LoC. Someone please tell this government, disinformation is not countered by PIB statements. On the public opinion battleground, India’s strikes caused no damage, India lost the dogfight with the PAF, oh look, how tattered the IAF actually is, Imran Khan deserves the Nobel peace prize. And an unseemly squabble over how many died in Balakot.

Pakistan is de-escalating swiftly, resuming normalcy. Next week Indian and Pakistani officials will be discussing Kartarpur, not JeM. The spotlight has moved from counter terrorism to Abhinandan to de-escalation and Sikh pilgrims, all within a week. Pakistan needs to go back to business as usual. India disturbed the status quo, for a reason. So far, all India has gained with de-escalation is – Abhinandan. There have been big foreign policy gains, but that stuff excites only diplomats and journalists. Releasing Balakot footage would correct some of the dissonance. Telling ministers and political leaders to shut up would be another.

Big picture – Pak terror will not go down, because terrorism remains an essential component of their military strategy and political objective. Rahmatullah Nabil, former Afghan spy chief, says Pakistan incubates 45-48 terror groups for different purposes. As a nation we have to understand, this will not be an Instagram friendly battle, we will incur costs, and our only defence will be clarity of purpose. India’s job will be to raise the costs on the other side every time, until they become unacceptable.

India needs greater capacity for penetrating terror hubs inside Pakistan and not only through air strikes. This means India has to use technology, intelligence and covert means as a matter of course, with the only aim being to degrade their infrastructure. This has to be a whole of government approach from MEA to finance to military, specialists who work on the same job for years, not roused after every terror strike.

This should be the backdrop for diplomacy – the global diplomatic space created for India after Pulwama and Balakot is largely a consequence of India’s ability to manifest hard, kinetic power. India unofficially altered its nuclear posture after Pakistan developed its tactical weapons to indicate it would retaliate with “overwhelming force” to Pak use of TNW. We should make that official and write it into the doctrine, as part of critical strategic communication.

Future governments, even those without Modi’s risk taking ability, will have to factor in muscular response to big terror attacks, because public opinion will demand it – you have to be at a funeral for a Jawan in small town India to know that.

And yes, we should question governments and military services about their claims. The day we can’t, we become Pakistan.