A new independent study
published in Sage Journals
has concluded that India requires between 67 and 79 fighter squadrons to
secure a high probability of air superiority in a simultaneous two‑front
conflict against near‑peer adversaries.
This figure is far higher than the Indian Air Force’s sanctioned strength of
42 squadrons and its current operational count of roughly 29 to 31 active
squadrons.
The study employs a discrete‑time engagement‑gated Monte Carlo simulation
framework to model dynamic, data‑farmed air combat scenarios under severe data
constraints. This methodology allows for probabilistic outcomes across
multiple iterations, providing a more realistic assessment of force
requirements under varying conditions.
The exact number within the 67 to 79 range fluctuates depending on assumptions
regarding China’s specific force commitment levels relative to the Indian
theatre. If China deploys a larger proportion of its fleet to the region, the
requirement rises towards the upper threshold. If commitments are lower, the
figure remains closer to the baseline estimate.
Traditional benchmarks dating back to post‑1962 calculations are increasingly
inadequate. They fail to account for the modern scale and pace of air force
modernisation among near‑peer adversaries. China’s rapid expansion of its J‑20
stealth fleet and Pakistan’s integration of advanced Chinese systems have
reshaped the regional air balance, demanding a reassessment of India’s force
posture.
India’s sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons has long been considered
sufficient for single‑front contingencies. However, the current operational
strength of only 29 to 31 squadrons, depleted by retirements of older aircraft
such as the MiG‑21, leaves a significant gap. This shortfall is compounded by
delays in induction of new platforms and the slow pace of indigenous
development.
The estimated requirement of 67 to 79 squadrons underscores the scale of
India’s challenge. Achieving this level of force would require both
accelerated acquisitions and rapid modernisation of existing fleets. Without
such measures, India risks entering a two‑front conflict with insufficient
airpower to guarantee superiority.
The study highlights the importance of fast‑tracking India’s air combat
capability. Indigenous programs such as the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft
remain years away from operational readiness, while external acquisitions face
budgetary and logistical hurdles. Bridging the gap will require a combination
of immediate procurement, sustained investment, and long‑term planning.
India’s requirement is not merely a numerical target but a strategic
imperative. Air superiority is the foundation of modern warfare, enabling
freedom of manoeuvre for ground and naval forces, deterring adversary
escalation, and ensuring national security. Without adequate squadrons,
India’s ability to defend its borders and project power in the region will
remain compromised.
The independent study therefore provides a stark warning. Unless India expands
its fighter fleet to at least 67 squadrons, and ideally closer to 79, its
capacity to prevail in a simultaneous two‑front conflict will remain
uncertain. The urgency of this requirement cannot be overstated, as
adversaries continue to modernise at industrial scale.
India Charts Twin Fighter Path With TEJAS MK-1A Deliveries And AMCA
Development
India’s fighter fleet transition is now firmly structured: HAL is accelerating
TEJAS MK-1A deliveries with the first handovers expected by August–September
2026, while ADA and DRDO are driving the AMCA fifth‑generation program under a
strict public‑private roadmap that targets prototype rollout by 2027–29 and
induction by the mid‑2030s.
| Aircraft Program |
Prototype/Initial Flight |
Mass Production Target |
Core System & Localisation Highlights |
| TEJAS MK-1A |
Operational/Flight Trials Ongoing |
2026–2034 |
Indigenous: Uttam AESA Radar, Advanced EW Suite, Astra BVR Integration. 180 total on order. |
| TEJAS MK-2 |
Target First Flight: Late 2026/Early 2027 |
Mid-2029 |
Indigenous Evolution: Heavier 4.5-gen variant, GE F414 engine, higher payload capacity. |
| Rafale (MRFA Plan) |
Flight-Proven/Operational (36 jets in service) |
2028–2029 (Domestic fuselage assembly start) |
High Localisation: 114 jets planned (18-22 flyaway, 92-96 built in India via Dassault-Tata partnership); hardwired Interface Control Document (ICD) for integration of Indian weapons. |
| AMCA (MK-1/MK-2) |
Target First Flight: 2028–2029 |
2033–2035 |
Indigenous 5th-Gen: Stealth airframe, internal weapons bay, supercruise. MK-2 to feature custom 120 kN powerplant (Safran or Rolls-Royce/Reliance proposals). |
The Indian Air Force has committed to 180 TEJAS MK-1A fighters. The initial
contract for 83 aircraft was followed by approval for 97 more, bringing the
total to 180. Early delays were caused by shortages of General Electric F404
engines, but HAL has stabilised supplies.
By mid‑2026, nearly 30 airframes were structurally complete, with five to six
fully assembled and undergoing integration trials. HAL has already received
six engines, with 15–20 more expected in FY27, allowing backlog conversion
into deliverable fighters.
The first official handovers are targeted for August–September 2026,
coinciding with Astra beyond‑visual‑range missile testing. By December 2026,
HAL aims to deliver 18–24 aircraft to form the nucleus of a second squadron.
The deadline for the first operational squadron is March 2027.
Completion of the first batch of 83 jets is expected by 2029–30, while the
follow‑on 97 aircraft should be delivered by 2033–34. HAL has expanded
production capacity with three lines, including a new Nashik facility, raising
annual output from 8–12 to 24 units.
Financially, HAL reported ₹33,050 crore revenue in FY26, with its order book
swelling to ₹2.54 lakh crore, including the TEJAS contracts.
The TEJAS MK-1A incorporates AESA radar, advanced electronic warfare suites,
digital cockpit, and Astra missile integration. Indigenous subsystems are
being prioritised, with the Uttam AESA radar completing over 125 flight trials
and scheduled for integration from the 41st production aircraft onwards.
Uttam offers detection ranges up to 240 km against fighter‑sized targets,
multi‑target tracking, and compatibility with ASTRA MK-2 missiles. HAL has
placed a ₹2,205 crore order for antenna arrays to support serial production,
ensuring most of the second batch of 97 aircraft will feature Uttam.
Parallel to this, the AMCA program has entered a decisive phase. In May 2026,
the Ministry of Defence issued a ₹15,000 crore Request for Proposal for five
prototypes. Private consortia—Tata Advanced Systems, L&T‑BEL‑Dynamatic,
and Bharat Forge‑BEML‑Data Patterns—are competing, with HAL excluded from lead
integration. Contract signing is expected by late 2026.
The roadmap mandates rollout of the first prototype by 2027–29, maiden flight
by 2028–29, and completion of 1,800 test sorties by 2032. Limited Series
Production is scheduled for 2033–34, with full induction by 2035.
The AMCA MK-1 will use imported GE-F414 engines, while MK‑2 will feature a 120
kN thrust indigenous engine co‑developed with Safran. The aircraft will
incorporate stealth shaping, radar‑absorbent materials, internal weapons bays,
supercruise capability, and AI‑driven sensor fusion. ADA describes it as a
“5.5‑generation” fighter, embedding sixth‑generation computing into a
fifth‑generation airframe.
The GE-F404 engine powering TEJAS MK-1A produces about 17,700 lbf thrust,
while the F414 intended for TEJAS MK-2 and AMCA MK-1 delivers 22,000 lbf, with
improved fuel efficiency, durability, and payload capacity. The F414’s larger
fan and advanced blisk compressor increase airflow by 16%, enhancing
performance.
India’s future fleet transitions are thus clearly defined. TEJAS MK-1A
deliveries will stabilise squadron strength through 2034, TEJAS MK-2 will
bridge the gap with heavier payloads and GE F414 engines by 2029, and AMCA
will provide stealth capability by 2035. Together, these tracks aim to restore
the IAF’s sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons and reduce reliance on imports.
Agencies
