While India is engaged in a grim standoff with China in Ladakh at the LAC, India’s military planners can’t lose track of the long-term advances China’s military is making and the pace of those advances. Over the next decade, China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads is set to double in size. China’s nuclear forces are projected to significantly evolve over the next 10 years as it “modernizes, diversifies and increases the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms”. China already has the world’s largest navy, with around 350 ships and submarines that include more than 130 major surface combatants

China is rapidly increasing its nuclear arsenal, with the number of warheads it has expected to at least double in the next 10 years. Meanwhile, the country’s military has either equalled or surpassed the US in many key areas, a new report by Pentagon has revealed. 

China is racing ahead in developing cruise and ballistic missiles, integrated air defence systems and ship building, the report says.

The report comes at a time when China’s increasingly belligerent behaviour in Asia has alarmed countries like India, Japan and Australia, and the People’s Liberation Army has made multiple incursions across the Line of Actual control in Ladakh, triggering unprecedented tension between the two Himalayan neighbours.

Tensions have also been rising in the South China Sea, where China’s military manoeuvres have led other countries scrambling to find an effective response.

But as the Pentagon report lays out in some detail, China’s long-term plan to become a military superpower extends far beyond Asia, and the Middle Kingdom has its eyes firmly set on catching up with the US, which is still the world’s sole superpower.

What the report says

  • Over the next decade, China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads, which is currently in the 200-230 range, is set to double in size.
  • The number of land-based ICBMs capable of threatening the US could expand to approximately 200 in a mere five years.
  • China’s nuclear forces are projected to significantly evolve over the next 10 years as it “modernizes, diversifies and increases the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms”.
  • The Asian giant is bolstering its nuclear triad that includes a credible air-launched ballistic missile while augmenting its sea-based and ground nuclear capabilities.
  • China already has the world’s largest navy, with around 350 ships and submarines that include more than 130 major surface combatants. 
  • Its arsenal includes over 1,250 ground-launched ballistic missiles and ground-launched cruise missiles that have a range of 500-5,500 km, and China is very aggressively testing them.
  • China may have considered locations to host military logistics facilities in countries such as Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, Pakistan, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, UAE, Seychelles, Kenya, Angola, Tanzania and Tajikistan.

What It Means For India And The World

While India is engaged in a grim standoff with China in eastern Ladakh at the Line of Actual Control – and in the last few days Indian Army soldiers have, to their credit, got the upper hand in the southern bank of Pangong lake – India’s military and strategic planners can’t lose track of the medium- and long-term advances China’s military is making and the pace at which it is making them.

India’s strategic affairs community while examining the Pentagon report will immediately note that by attempting to set up military logistics facilities in Pakistan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka China poses a potential future threat to India literally from all four directions.