The novel Coronavirus outbreak has dealt a major blow to China’s image with its credibility damaged grievously, says former Indian ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale. The pandemic has also brought to the fore vulnerabilities and shortcomings in global institutions such as the United Nations (UN), and the new world order that emerges post COVID-19 could create space for a group of middle powers to provide global leadership, which could include Japan, India, France, and South Africa, he says. Edited excerpts from an interview:

There seem to be two different patterns to the way China is operating right now. One is a belligerent attitude towards the West and the other is a seemingly softer approach towards countries such as India, Sri Lanka and the African states. Is this reading correct?

When you have observed Chinese diplomacy for a long time, you realize that Chinese diplomatic tactics has two different faces. One can be described as a smiling face while the other I would describe as the snarling face. In other words, you can also say that China uses both the carrot and the stick in its diplomacy.

So, any one country may see China’s smiling face at one point in time, but you can also be shown its snarling face at another point in time. We, in India, have not merely experienced both these avatars over the years but have also dealt with them very adroitly and calmly. So, what you are currently witnessing is the West being shown and treated to China’s snarling face while we are perhaps being shown their smiling face. After all, you cannot fight with everyone all the time. So to cut directly to your question, most nations around the globe are well aware of Chinese tactics and they will bear diminishing returns.

We are also seeing another trend, that of Chinese ambassadors and people in the diplomatic missions in different countries becoming more and more vocal, while Beijing, the leadership that is, seems to be quiet. I am referring to what is happening in Australia and the Czech Republic where we see the power of the Chinese economy being used as a weapon to threaten consequences. Is this something new?

This is not something new. It is a trend that has accelerated in the post pandemic world. China has used its economic leverage in the past too. You will recollect a few years ago when there was a political tiff between China and South Korea, Beijing had stopped Chinese tourists from visiting Korea and this had made a huge impact on the Koreans. Other countries too have experienced this. Now, China seems to be threatening Australia in similar fashion.

However, this time I, for one, don’t think it is going to work. Remember, economics works both ways. Trade increases welfare in both trading nations. Reducing trade will hurt both trading nations as well. Also, most calculations have changed in this Post-COVID-19 world and perhaps the Chinese have not fully taken this into account. Your point of Chinese ambassadors and embassies being shrill and vocal is a good one.

This is a display of combative diplomacy, where the Chinese diplomats want to change the narrative through such diplomatic manoeuvring. Again, I do not think such tactics will work anymore.

There is palpable anger in the world not only among governments but also among people against China over how they allowed COVID-19 to become a pandemic of such proportions. What about the Chinese people themselves? Do you sense any anger within China because of the way the Chinese authorities acted?

You are right, there is anger around the world, especially among civil society, that for a crucial three-week period in January 2020, the Chinese authorities did not tell the world how serious this current epidemic was and what its consequences could be. During those three weeks, people travelled from Wuhan all around the world, which may have contributed to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Chinese authorities need to answer such queries rather than retorting angrily to them. Sometimes, honest mistakes are made and it is better to be open and apologetic about them, rather than being defensive about them. Instead, they are clamping down on information and in a sense ‘circling the wagons’. This is how authoritative, opaque systems react. Within China itself, the authorities have control over all levers of power.

There has been damage to China’s image abroad. What will be the consequence of that in context of a new world order?

Yes, China’s image across most of the world has been dealt a serious blow as a result of the emotions in civil society that I have described earlier. China’s hard power may be intact but her soft power has gone into negative territory. Her credibility has been damaged grievously.

The fissures between the US and China have grown immeasurably as a result of this pandemic. Their battle for supremacy will continue.

However, the issues and problems domestically within the US have also become more apparent during this public health crisis. So, while she will continue to treat China as a peer competitor, she will also increasingly turn inward to resolve some of her own internal issues. This is a trend that existed before the Wuhan virus but will accelerate now.

On the other hand, with China’s credibility being hurt badly, she too has lost the moral authority to lead the world. So, I see space for a group of middle powers to provide global leadership, particularly on subjects that impact the whole of humanity. Perhaps, Japan, India, France, and South Africa could form some type of coalition to lead the world towards measured outcomes. Needless to add, we would hard power may be intact but her need to take both the US and China along.

Why is China so sensitive about this virus being called the Wuhan virus? There are examples of diseases being named after regions or countries. German measles is one example.

The whole world knows where this particular virus originated from. So, I would not balk at calling it the Wuhan Virus. I believe that whether we like it or not, this particular virus will be called by this name in popular parlance.

What do you think about the way the UN and the World Health Organization have dealt with this pandemic?

One of the consequences of the recent developments is that the UN and its specialized agencies have been shown to be lacking in direction, intent, and effectiveness. This is a result of the UN reflecting the world of 1945 and not that of 2020. Either there will have to be a complete restructuring of the UN and its agencies or else decision making power will flow elsewhere. It could flow to coalitions of countries who think alike on an individual global issue.

For example, on the question of climate change, there could be a group of 7-8 countries that could provide the lead for some serious steps and measures, which will have to be accepted by one and all. India definitely has the potential to play a leadership role, along with other nations, in this respect.

Europe is the second-most affected region in the world because of this pandemic. What will be the consequences of this for EU (European Union) as an entity?

This pandemic has done great harm to the concept of a united Europe in general and to the EU in particular. You would have noticed that the EU did not come to the help of individual member states to tackle the COVID-19 crisis. Each member of the EU was on its own. Does this sound the death knell of the EU?

I think it does. Perhaps, a leaner, more united and effective union of fewer countries may arise from this pandemic. We shall have to wait and see.

What impact has the pandemic had on India-China relations?

On India-China relations, the relationship has always been very complex. Post the pandemic, it will become more so. We have been managing this relationship not merely over the last 70 years but over millennia. We will continue to do so. Both sides must remain calm but should be sensitive to each side’s areas of concern. Right now, each country will focus more on their own internal issues particularly on how to tackle the economic problems arising from the lockdowns necessitated by the pandemic. Globally, India will find some new diplomatic space to make its leadership felt on issues impacting humanity as a whole. I would recommend that Indian and Chinese scientists work together on developing a vaccine against the novel coronavirus. This could become a new sphere in which we could cooperate.