Pakistan's recent diplomatic outreach to Washington represents a pivotal moment in U.S.-Pakistan defence relations, marking the first visit by a Pakistan Air Force chief to the United States in over a decade. Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu's arrival in Washington on July 2, 2025, has generated significant speculation about Pakistan's pursuit of advanced American weaponry, particularly the AIM-120D Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) for its F-16 fleet.

This diplomatic engagement comes in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, a brief but intense four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025 that exposed critical vulnerabilities in Pakistan's air defence capabilities and highlighted the limitations of its Chinese-supplied military systems. The timing of this visit, just weeks after the conflict, underscores Pakistan's urgent need to modernize its air combat capabilities and reduce its dependence on Chinese weaponry that performed poorly against Indian forces.

Operation Sindoor: A Wake-Up Call For Pakistan

The catalyst for Pakistan's renewed American outreach was the devastating performance of its military during Operation Sindoor, launched by India in response to a terrorist attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians on April 22, 2025. During this conflict, India's precision strikes successfully penetrated Pakistan's Chinese-supplied air defence systems, including the HQ-9B and HQ-16 surface-to-air missile systems, using BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, SCALP air-launched cruise missiles, and Harop loitering munitions.

The failure of Pakistan's Chinese-made air defence systems was particularly alarming. China later admitted that the HQ-9B and HQ-16 systems were not engineered to neutralize high-speed, low-flying missiles like India's BrahMos, despite earlier assurances that these systems matched the capabilities of Russia's S-400. This admission has sparked widespread criticism within Pakistan's military establishment and exposed the limitations of relying heavily on Chinese defence technology.

Pakistani claims of downing five Indian aircraft, including three Rafale jets, using Chinese PL-15E missiles remain largely unverified and have been met with scepticism. The recovery of intact PL-15E missile debris in Indian territory has provided valuable intelligence insights into Chinese missile technology, while simultaneously highlighting the weapon's failure to effectively engage Indian aircraft equipped with advanced electronic warfare systems.

Pakistan's F-16 Fleet: Current Status And Limitations

Pakistan currently operates approximately 76 F-16 aircraft in various configurations, representing one of the most capable elements of the Pakistan Air Force. The fleet composition includes:

18 F-16C/D Block 52+ aircraft: These represent the most advanced F-16s in Pakistani service, delivered between 2010-2012 under the Peace Drive program

45 F-16A/B Mid-Life Update (MLU) aircraft: Older Block 15/20 jets upgraded to near-Block 50 standards

13 ex-Jordanian F-16A/B Block 15 Air Defence Fighters (ADF): Additional aircraft acquired from Jordan

Critical Ageing of Current Missile Inventory

Pakistan's current AIM-120C-5 missile inventory, acquired in 2010 under a $650 million contract, faces significant challenges. The 500 AIM-120C-5 missiles are approaching the end of their operational service life, with potential retirement by 2028 due to ageing propulsion systems and degraded solid-fuel rocket motors. The missiles' performance has been compromised by nearly two decades of storage under Pakistan's harsh climatic conditions, necessitating costly service life extension programs that could approach 30-50% of the original procurement cost.

This ageing missile inventory puts Pakistan at a severe disadvantage against India's modernized air force, particularly the Rafale jets equipped with Meteor missiles that have a range exceeding 200 kilometres and advanced ramjet propulsion systems. The disparity was evident during Operation Sindoor, where Pakistani aircraft struggled to effectively engage Indian forces due to range limitations and electronic warfare vulnerabilities.

Recent U.S.-Pakistan Defence Relations: Signs of Thaw

Despite a decade of strained relations, recent developments suggest a potential warming in U.S.-Pakistan defence ties. In January 2025, the Trump administration approved $397 million in funding to sustain Pakistan's F-16 fleet, marking a significant shift from the previous policy of restricted military aid. This funding supports the Technical Security Team (TST), a contingent of U.S. contractors stationed in Pakistan to ensure compliance with strict end-use monitoring rules.

The funding approval was part of a broader release of $5.3 billion in previously frozen foreign aid, prioritizing security and counter-narcotics programs under the Trump administration's national security framework. This financial support was reportedly linked to Pakistan's assistance in supplying ammunition to Ukraine, demonstrating the transactional nature of the renewed relationship.

Air Chief Marshal Sidhu's visit builds on earlier diplomatic engagement, including Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir's meeting with President Donald Trump, suggesting a coordinated effort by Pakistan's military establishment to reset relations with Washington. The timing of these high-level meetings indicates Pakistan's strategic recognition of the need to diversify its defence partnerships beyond China.

Congressional And Administrative Hurdles

The path to securing AIM-120D missiles faces significant obstacles within the U.S. political and administrative system. Congress has never successfully blocked a proposed arms sale via a joint resolution of disapproval, but the legislative body retains the authority to modify or terminate arms sales through other legislative mechanisms.

Export Control Concerns

The United States maintains strict export controls on advanced weaponry to prevent technology transfers to strategic competitors, particularly China. Pakistan's growing defence relationship with Beijing, including plans to acquire 40 J-35 stealth jets, raises concerns in Washington that sensitive AIM-120D technologies could be accessed by Chinese engineers. Historical precedent exists for such concerns, as the 2006 F-16 contract included stringent end-use monitoring agreements to ensure compliance.

Congressional Review Process

Under the Arms Export Control Act (AECA), any potential AIM-120D sale would require formal notification to Congress 30 calendar days before the administration could proceed with the transaction. Given the missile's advanced capabilities and Pakistan's strategic alignment with China, such a sale would likely face intense scrutiny from legislators concerned about technology proliferation and regional stability.

The political sensitivity surrounding arms sales to Pakistan has historical precedent. The 2016 attempt to sell additional F-16s was blocked after lobbying from India, which expressed concerns about the jets being used against it in violation of U.S. agreements. Similar opposition could emerge regarding AIM-120D sales, particularly given India's growing strategic importance to U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy.

China Factor: The Complicating Element

Pakistan's deepening defence ties with China represent perhaps the most significant obstacle to securing AIM-120D missiles. Over 80% of Pakistan's military inventory comes from China, including the J-10CE fighters, JF-17 Thunder aircraft, and various air defence systems. This extensive Chinese presence in Pakistan's military apparatus raises legitimate concerns about technology security and potential reverse engineering of sensitive American systems.

Chinese Weaponry Performance Concerns

The poor performance of Chinese weaponry during Operation Sindoor has created an opportunity for American defence engagement with Pakistan. Chinese systems, including the HQ-9B air defence system and PL-15E missiles, failed to meet expectations against Indian forces. This failure has prompted Pakistan to reconsider its heavy reliance on Chinese military technology and seek alternatives from proven Western suppliers.

However, Pakistan's reported agreement to acquire 40 Chinese J-35 stealth fighters, despite official denials, complicates any potential American arms sale. The presence of Chinese engineers and technical personnel associated with these advanced platforms could provide opportunities for studying American missile technology, potentially compromising the AIM-120D's effectiveness and revealing sensitive design details to a strategic competitor.

Regional Balance of Power Implications

The potential transfer of AIM-120D missiles to Pakistan would significantly alter the regional military balance in South Asia. India's current advantage in beyond-visual-range combat, primarily through its Rafale-Meteor combination, could be neutralized if Pakistan acquires comparable American technology.

India's Technological Edge

India's Rafale jets, equipped with Meteor missiles featuring ramjet propulsion and ranges exceeding 200 kilometres, currently provide a decisive advantage in air-to-air combat. The Meteor's unique "no-escape zone" of 60-80 kilometres makes it nearly impossible for targets to evade once locked on. This technological superiority was demonstrated during Operation Sindoor, where Indian aircraft successfully engaged Pakistani forces while remaining outside the effective range of Chinese-supplied missiles.

Pakistani Modernisation Imperative

The AIM-120D would provide Pakistan with several key advantages:

Extended engagement range matching or exceeding Indian capabilities
Proven reliability against modern electronic warfare systems
Compatibility with existing F-16 platforms requiring minimal integration costs
Enhanced resistance to countermeasures compared to Chinese alternatives

Prospects For Success

The likelihood of U.S. approval for an AIM-120D sale to Pakistan depends on several converging factors that create both opportunities and obstacles for such a transaction.

Several elements work in Pakistan's favour:

Demonstrated Failure of Chinese Systems: Operation Sindoor exposed the limitations of Chinese weaponry, potentially making American alternatives more attractive to U.S. policymakers

Counterterrorism Cooperation: Pakistan's support for U.S. objectives, including assistance to Ukraine, has improved bilateral relations

Regional Stability Concerns: A militarily weak Pakistan could potentially destabilize the region, making some level of capability maintenance strategically beneficial

Economic Leverage: Pakistan's financial constraints limit its ability to acquire large quantities of advanced weapons, reducing proliferation concerns

Significant Obstacles

However, substantial challenges remain:

Chinese Partnership Concerns: Pakistan's deep integration with Chinese military systems poses unacceptable technology security risks

Congressional Opposition: Historical scepticism about Pakistan's reliability as a partner could generate legislative resistance

Indian Lobbying: India's growing strategic importance to the U.S. may influence decision-making against Pakistani arms sales

Technology Proliferation: Advanced AIM-120D capabilities could potentially be compromised through Chinese access.

As developments continue to unfold, the international community will be watching closely to see whether Washington and Islamabad can navigate the complex intersection of technology transfer, regional security, and great power competition that defines contemporary South Asian geopolitics. The outcome will have lasting implications for regional stability, the future of U.S.-Pakistan relations, and the broader strategic competition between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific region.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)