The Chinese Communist Party-affiliated armed forces are expected to assume an increased role in foreign policy too. The policy document expects a much more integrated civilian and defence industrial complex, including R&D, to seamlessly make substantial capabilities available to either sector. Also envisaged is the interchangeable use of civilian and military infrastructure

by Group Captain Murli Menon (Retd)

Encroaching upon Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh, the Chinese military has built a large village along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), as per a Pentagon report. The military dialogues with India have so far only resulted in limited disengagement. A just-released annual Pentagon assessment report to the US Congress highlights China’s military preparedness and expected defence force accretions. The document sets forth “strategic, military and ideological views” on the global balance of power. The ongoing LAC standoff with India could also be seen as an exercise to rehearse some of these new doctrines, such as plans for Tibet, Xinjiang and its Western Theatre Command. Chinese President Xi Jinping targets overtaking US military and political power by 2049, the centenary of the 1949 Chinese Revolution. The Chinese revisionist policies revolve around ‘dual circulation’ of generating increased domestic demand for goods to drive its national economy. The backbone of this is to be the One Belt One Road (OBOR) venture to link up globally to all its allies.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-affiliated armed forces are expected to assume an increased role in foreign policy too. The policy document expects a much more integrated civilian and defence industrial complex, including R&D, to seamlessly make substantial capabilities available to either sector. Also envisaged is the interchangeable use of civilian and military infrastructure (such as the use of national highways for air operations) as also for defence logistics and production, besides fast military mobilisation and joint operations revolving around ‘intelligentisation’, involving technological, electronic, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and cyber warfare capabilities. Chemical and biological research and employment are other dangerous portents of the PLA’s new-found defence doctrine. Despite having signed the Chemical Warfare Convention (CWC) and ratified it in 1997, China now claims that its adherence to CWC norms would not be verifiable. This needs to be seen in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic and China’s alleged role in having let the virus escape a defence laboratory. Another focus area for China is intelligence as many of its state-of-the-art military technologies are said to be stolen from the West, specifically the US, via espionage. This, however, can be expected to be drastically curtailed as the CIA is specifically targeting Chinese agents to prevent loss of information from its industrial complex.

The Pentagon report further mentions the planned accelerated development of the PLA which, willy-nilly, had lagged behind its Air Force and Navy in recent times. The PLA Navy is already the largest global entity in terms of seaborne combat assets. Now whilst the new Chinese military aspirations would seem menacing to its neighbours and rivals, this is akin to a ‘white paper’ seeking to guide her to long-term aspirations, and there would be many a slip between the cup and the lip. India’s defence spending is just a third of China’s, and we need to see what are the hurdles in the way of Chinese ‘big power’ dreams. The biggest worry would be its leadership model. Xi Jinping is now a ‘triple barrel’ Chief, leading the Party as its General Secretary , the country as its President and the Central Military Commission as its Chairman. With a leadership tussle being talked of, the CCP-orchestrated system is highly vulnerable to being upstaged by another autocratic ruler. Social media is rife with comparisons of the Chinese strongman with Adolf Hitler in his leadership style and ambitions.

The other serious challenge is the downturn expected in the Chinese economy, what with the recent collapse of real estate giants such as Evergrande. Several more small and medium corporates are expected to come crumbling down, thanks to their unmanageable debt structures, should the Evergrande fiasco be repeated. Besides, the government’s attempts to slow down real estate growth post this collapse could lead to markedly low GDP in the coming years. Speculative real estate deals have been the main reason for China’s dramatic growth story over the past decade, thanks to increased employment and revenue collection, contributing to nearly a quarter of the country’s GDP, considerably larger than of the US. The challenges posed by the project delays in OBOR in countries such as Maldives, Indonesia and Pakistan would ultimately take their toll on the Chinese economy. Progressive entrepreneurs such as Jack Ma of Ali Baba are said to be running foul with the CCP and the establishment due to conflict of interest. High-handed methods of a strong communist system may alone be insufficient to keep corporate discipline intact. The so-called successful Chinese communistic ‘democracy’ could well do a humpty dumpty sooner than expected.

Other issues currently weighing down Chinese ambitions are the tensions with the US over Taiwan and tensions in the Indo-Pacific with the Quad countries. The possibility of hostilities over the Taiwan standoff has led to panic buying in China as the government has asked its citizens to stock up on essential supplies.

Regardless of its A2AD (Anti-Access Area Denial) defensive doctrine, an amphibious assault against Taipei is not a possibility as of now, considering China’s limited military amphibious landing capabilities and an expected riposte from the US. Sino-US ties would be critical over the next two decades. A modus vivendi setting boundaries for competition and cooperation may be the way ahead. The nation that best manages domestic challenges whilst showing global leadership would enjoy success. This policy paper on China may remain wishful thinking of a belligerent autarchy. Frustrations on this score could mean continued border incidents along the LAC with India and constant game-playing on other Indo-Pak issues.