The deepening ties between China and Iran present a significant and evolving challenge for India, impacting its strategic, economic, and geopolitical interests in West Asia and beyond, wrote Air Marshal Anil Chopra in FirstPost web portal.

Several key dynamics are at play:

Strategic Realignment And The Beijing-Tehran-Islamabad Nexus

China’s growing partnership with Iran—solidified through the 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and Iran’s integration into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—is shifting the regional balance. This nexus, which increasingly includes Pakistan, threatens to sideline India’s influence, especially in Central Asia and Afghanistan. The alignment gives China leverage over critical corridors such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which could potentially extend into Iran, providing Pakistan with greater strategic depth and further isolating India in the region.

Energy And Economic Implications

China has become the dominant importer of Iranian oil, accounting for roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, especially as India halted its purchases under US pressure. This has created a complex dependency: Iran relies heavily on Chinese revenue, while China secures a steady energy supply, often circumventing US sanctions through shadow fleets and other means. This dynamic not only weakens India’s energy security but also reduces its economic leverage with Tehran.

Defence And Security Concerns

Iran’s military, weakened by recent conflicts and sanctions, is increasingly turning to China for advanced weaponry and technology. China has supported Iran’s ballistic missile program and supplied various military systems. Should Iran proceed with acquiring advanced Chinese fighter jets and air defence systems, China would solidify its role as a key defence partner, further frustrating India’s ambitions to enter Iran’s defence market and raising the risk of advanced technology reaching India’s adversaries.

Connectivity And Infrastructure Competition

India’s flagship connectivity project, the Chabahar Port, is at risk. If Iran allows Chinese investment or cedes greater control to Beijing, India’s access to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) could be severely compromised. This would undermine years of Indian investment and strategic planning, while bolstering China’s regional logistics and trade infrastructure.

Diplomatic And Regional Power Play

China’s increasing presence in Iran complicates India’s balancing act in West Asia, especially as India has cultivated closer ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel. With US influence waning and China’s economic and military might rising, regional actors may hedge toward Beijing, potentially diminishing India’s diplomatic space and options.

Limitations And Opportunities For India

Despite these challenges, China’s engagement with Iran is not without risks for Beijing. The region’s complex power dynamics, Iran’s unpopular regime, and China’s need to maintain relations with the US, Europe, and Israel may constrain how far and how fast the partnership can deepen. 

For India, this means there is still room to manoeuvre:

Maintain robust diplomatic channels with Iran.
Continue economic engagement and seek new areas for cooperation, including defence exports.
Keep options open for future energy imports.
Invest in people-to-people ties and soft power.
Monitor the China-Iran-Pakistan axis while retaining strategic autonomy and strong relations with Russia, the US, Europe, and regional powers.

Conclusion

The China-Iran partnership is a direct challenge to India’s regional ambitions, particularly regarding energy security, connectivity, and strategic influence in West Asia and Central Asia. India must adopt a vigilant, pragmatic approach—deepening its own regional partnerships, accelerating infrastructure projects like Chabahar, and preserving its autonomy in foreign policy—to navigate the shifting landscape and counterbalance China’s growing clout.

Based On FirstPost Report