As former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal says, India must announce immediate formal exclusion of Huawei from 5G trials in India as a good message that will have an international echo. India will also have to step up its efforts to strengthen the Quadplus by engaging more robustly with its members and look at countries like South Korea, Australia, Japan and the US for creating alternative supply chains. Being resolute on the border and reasonable in diplomacy may hold the key to managing the fraught relationship with China at this moment

by Nitin A Gokhale

India should have seen it coming and should have started preparing for a backlash from China in the aftermath of the resolution of the Doklam crisis in August 2017. Doklam was egg on China’s face and Beijing was not going to forget the slight in a hurry. So, at the first opportunity it saw, China initiated the operation to avenge Doklam. The objectives were multiple: One, assess its own military readiness while analysing India’s military response to its mobilisation and, two, test India’s political and diplomatic resolve in facing yet another border crisis.

While increased belligerence all along the northern frontier was to be expected, given that every year since 2013, transgressions and nibbling activities on the border by the Chinese PLA have been more frequent, the scale and scope of the current standoff is far bigger than anything since 1962. The face-offs have also been more violent and in some cases of longer duration too.

Sure enough, the extent of PLA build-up in Aksai Chin and military readiness opposite Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh sectors in the past two months have been unprecedented. India has also immediately deployed its forces to match the Chinese numbers far more swiftly than before. However, Indian security planners have not been able to decipher the end game of the Chinese military mobilisation. Is it to coerce India diplomatically? Or, to settle the half a dozen “areas of differing perceptions” that exist all along the Eastern Ladakh by force once and for all? Or, is the military show of strength meant as a message to New Delhi not to be part of any anti-China coalition that is being attempted to be stitched together?

Answers are hard to come by but events since May 5 and 6, including the deadly clash in the Galwan Valley and the subsequent statements from both sides, have further muddied waters. While China lays claim to the entire Galwan Valley contrary to earlier ground position and India accuses Chinese troops of trying to forcibly alter the status quo on the ground, the tactical battle of attrition will likely get worse before any solution is found by military commanders. For India, nothing less than restoration of status quo ante will be acceptable, especially on the north bank of the Pangong Tso in Ladakh. China, meanwhile, would like to maintain its upper hand in that location even if it disengages at other places like the Galwan Valley. It will take a combination of hard-nosed diplomacy and military acumen to achieve India’s immediate objective. Whatever be the outcome, it will not prevent a chilling effect on India-China relations in the long term. The spirit of Wuhan and Mamallapuram is now dead.

Across three governments since 2005, New Delhi has tried to have a working relationship with China despite Beijing’s consistent efforts to undermine India. China opposes India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council as well as NSG membership; it protects Pakistan at every international fora; it continues to nibble at Indian territory and refuses to clarify the Line of Actual Control. It will be hard for New Delhi therefore to trust Beijing anymore. By its recent actions, China has left India with no option but to push back hard, no matter what the cost. Of course, it will not be easy for India to initiate a “contain China” policy. But initiate it must since the future of India and Asia is at stake.

In doing so, New Delhi will have to employ a multi-pronged approach. As former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal says, India must announce immediate formal exclusion of Huawei from 5G trials in India as a good message that will have an international echo. India will also have to step up its efforts to strengthen the Quadplus by engaging more robustly with its members and look at countries like South Korea, Australia, Japan and the United States for creating alternative supply chains. The economic costs will be higher but there is no choice if India has to break free from its dependence on Chinese companies. India must not shy away from strengthening its ties with other countries in all spheres.

Other political and diplomatic measures are available too. For instance, India can open more doors for the Dalai Lama and invite Taiwan’s foreign minister for a visit apart from speaking up for pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong and Uighurs forcibly sent into so-called re-education camps. Reiteration of India’s military, diplomatic and political redlines must be conveyed to China in no uncertain terms. Channels of communication between top leadership on both sides must however be kept open at all times.

Being resolute on the border and reasonable in diplomacy may hold the key to managing the fraught relationship with China at this moment. New Delhi also needs to improve and strengthen its strategic communication and not give an impression of confusion and chaos as it seems to have done of late.

By all accounts, the India-China relationship is at an inflexion point. If India has to earn its rightful place at the international high table, it will have to show more dexterity than it has demonstrated in dealing with China in the past few months. Indians and governments across the world are watching the standoff with great curiosity and concern. New Delhi must step up to the plate and not allow China the pleasure to see an India that gets humiliated.