The Indian Air Force (IAF) faces a pressing challenge in maintaining its squadron strength, currently hovering around 30 squadrons against a sanctioned target of 42.
This shortfall has intensified calls for additional Rafale multirole fighter jets, with defence officials stressing that full local production under the Make in India initiative requires a substantial order of approximately 140 aircraft to achieve economic viability.
This critical figure encompasses the 26 Rafale Marine variants recently procured for the Indian Navy, alongside a proposed acquisition of 114 jets tailored for the IAF. Such scale would enable comprehensive indigenous manufacturing, including significant technology transfer from Dassault Aviation, allowing for cost amortisation across production lines and reducing reliance on imports.
Without reaching this threshold, any Rafale program in India would likely revert to partial assembly or outright imports, curtailing the self-reliance benefits central to the Make in India vision. Limited orders fail to justify the upfront investments in tooling, training, and supply chains, thereby undermining India's ambitions in advanced aerospace capabilities.
Defence sources reveal that a government-to-government (G2G) deal for these Made in India Rafale jets would capitalise on existing infrastructure. Dassault has already forged partnerships with Indian firms like Reliance Aerostructure and TATA Advanced Systems for fuselage components, paving the way for a dedicated assembly line at a site such as HAL's Nashik facility.
This strategic alignment resonates with India's broader push for indigenous defence manufacturing. Progressive integration of higher indigenous content—potentially rising from 13% in initial batches to over 70% in later ones—could position India as a regional hub for Rafale production, exporting to friendly nations in Southeast Asia and Africa.
The IAF's urgency arises from operational imperatives, including border tensions with China and Pakistan. The Rafale's proven combat prowess, demonstrated in exercises like Tarang Shakti 2024 and real-world missions by the French Air Force, solidifies its edge over competitors such as the F/A-18 Super Hornet or indigenous TEJAS MK-2 in the multi-role fighter aircraft (MRFA) program.
Negotiations for the 114 IAF jets, valued at over $20 billion, emphasise a phased approach. An initial tranche of 36–60 aircraft could follow the F4 standard, incorporating enhanced Spectra electronic warfare suites and Meteor beyond-visual-range missiles, while laying groundwork for future upgrades.
Officials have expressed keen interest in the advanced Rafale F5 variant, slated for entry into French service by 2030. This iteration promises superior connectivity via next-generation data links, upgraded M88-4E engines delivering 20% more thrust, and seamless integration with unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) like the nEUROn drone.
Such features confer near-fifth-generation capabilities, including low-observability enhancements and AI-driven sensor fusion, vital for countering stealth threats from adversaries' J-20 and J-35 fighters. Recent indications point to a structured acquisition model: F4-standard jets initially, with embedded options for F5 retrofits, ensuring the fleet's long-term relevance.
This forward-looking strategy mirrors global trends, where evolutionary upgrades extend platform lifespans cost-effectively. For India, adopting the F5 would bridge the gap to true fifth-generation fighters like the AMCA, scheduled for induction in the 2030s, while leveraging Dassault's expertise in manned-unmanned teaming.
Economically, the full 140-order commitment unlocks economies of scale. Production costs per jet could drop by 30–40%, mirroring the Eurofighter Typhoon's experience in Europe, while fostering a vibrant ecosystem of over 500 MSMEs in aerospace manufacturing.
Technology transfer forms the cornerstone, with Dassault committing to share design data for aero-structures, avionics, and engine overhauls. This would empower DRDO and private players like Bharat Forge to indigenise critical subsystems, reducing import dependency from 60% to under 20% over a decade.
Geopolitically, the deal strengthens Indo-French ties, building on the 2016 purchase of 36 Rafales and ongoing Scorpene submarine collaboration. It counters China's growing influence in regional airpower, particularly amid reports of J-10C deployments along the LAC.
Challenges persist, including pricing disputes—India seeks $85–90 million per jet versus Dassault's $110 million ask—and offsets fulfilment. The government insists on 100% offsets, channelled into local R&D for hypersonic engines and directed-energy weapons.
HAL's role remains pivotal, having demonstrated readiness through Su-30 MKI overhauls. A dedicated Rafale line could generate 10,000 direct jobs and skill up 50,000 in the supply chain, aligning with Atmanirbhar Bharat goals.
For the Navy's 26 Rafale Ms, carrier compatibility with INS Vikrant adds maritime punch, featuring reinforced undercarriages and folding wings. Integrating these with IAF jets optimises logistics, spares, and training at Ambala and Hasimara bases.
Looking ahead, the Rafale F5's inclusion signals India's intent to leapfrog generational gaps. Enhanced engines and digital backbones would support BrahMos-NG integration and swarm drone operations, tailoring the platform to asymmetric threats.
Sustaining negotiations demand balanced trade-offs: affordability through G2G pricing, localisation via joint ventures, and superiority via F5 pathways. Failure risks squadron depletion to 25 by 2030, compromising deterrence.
Ultimately, securing the full order volume is imperative for realising Make in India Rafale ambitions. It promises industrial renaissance, equipping the IAF with bespoke fighters attuned to national security needs amid a volatile Indo-Pacific landscape.
IDN (With Agency Inputs)
