India continues to modernise its nuclear arsenal with several new weapon systems already fielded and more under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems, and sea-based systems, according to a bulletin by Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

Analysts estimate that India has produced sufficient military plutonium for between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads and may have assembled up to 190. With additional systems nearing completion, the stockpile is expected to grow further.

India currently operates nine nuclear-capable systems, including two aircraft, six land-based ballistic missiles, and one sea-based ballistic missile. At least two more systems are close to deployment. Operational forces can deliver over 160 warheads, with additional warheads produced for missiles in production.

The Indian government does not publish official figures on its nuclear stockpile. Estimates are derived from government statements, declassified documents, budgetary information, military parades, treaty disclosures, media reports, think tank analyses, industry publications, and commercial satellite imagery. 

India maintains a culture of opacity regarding its nuclear arsenal, refusing to divulge costs of certain programs and exempting the Strategic Forces Command from the Right to Information Act in 2016. Western governments, including the United States, rarely publish assessments of India’s nuclear arsenal, making independent analysis more challenging.

DRDO publications occasionally provide useful data points about dual-capable delivery systems. Local media often embellish claims, sometimes labelling systems as nuclear-capable without evidence. Analysts therefore rely on cautious expert assessments and satellite imagery to corroborate information.

India produces both highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium. HEU is largely used for nuclear-powered vessels and submarines. Weapons-grade plutonium has been produced at the Dhruva reactor near Mumbai and previously at the CIRUS reactor.

In April 2026, India’s 500-MWt Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam reached first criticality. If operated at 80% efficiency, it could produce 140 kilograms of Plutonium-239 annually, sufficient for up to 35 warheads.

Additional breeder reactors are planned. As of early 2026, India had produced approximately 730 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium, sufficient for 140 to 225 warheads, though uncertainties remain regarding warhead designs.

India validated a fission design in 1998, but progress on boosted fission and thermonuclear designs is unclear. Analysts estimate India has produced around 190 warheads, including over 160 for operational launchers.

India’s nuclear doctrine has historically focused on Pakistan. Border clashes, including the May 2025 incident in Kashmir, highlight the risks of escalation. India carried out missile strikes under “Operation Sindoor,” while Pakistan claimed to have shot down Indian jets.

The incident prompted Pakistan’s National Command Authority to convene, raising nuclear concerns. Past incidents, such as the 2019 Balakot strikes and the accidental BrahMos launch into Pakistan in 2022, underscore the dangers of miscalculation. While Pakistan remains the primary focus, India’s longer-range Agni missiles indicate increasing emphasis on China.

The 2017 Doklam standoff and subsequent clashes reinforced this posture. Analysts suggest India may be decoupling its nuclear strategy between China and Pakistan, though no official adoption of a “splendid first strike” strategy has been confirmed.

India adheres to a no-first-use policy but weakened it in 2003 by allowing nuclear use in response to chemical or biological attacks. Statements by defence ministers in 2016 and 2019 questioned the rigidity of NFU, introducing uncertainty.

Analysts warn NFU is not a reliable predictor of actual use. India is thought to store warheads separately from launchers, though some may be co-located with aircraft or pre-mated with ballistic missiles in canisters. The Agni-V is operational, and Agni-P is nearing deployment. Submarine-based systems require mated warheads for credible deterrence.

Aircraft remain central to India’s nuclear posture. Mirage-2000H and Jaguar IS aircraft are assigned nuclear missions. Mirage squadrons operate from Gwalior and occasionally from Bikaner, with upgrades underway despite delays.

Jaguars received DARIN-III upgrades, though half the fleet was not modernised due to cost. Retirement plans for Jaguars have been pushed back, with updated timelines between 2028 and 2031. Mirage aircraft may operate until 2038 to bridge the transition to Rafale and Tejas jets.

India signed a deal with HAL in 2025 for 97 Tejas Mk1A aircraft. Rafale aircraft, acquired from France, could replace Jaguars in the nuclear role. India received 36 Rafales by 2022, deployed in squadrons at Ambala and Hasimara.

Rafales feature India-specific enhancements and are supported by planned MRO facilities in Jewar and Hyderabad. In February 2026, India approved the purchase of 114 additional Rafales, with most to be manufactured domestically. India also ordered 26 Rafale-Marine jets for its aircraft carriers, with deliveries beginning in 2029.

India’s land-based missile arsenal includes Prithvi-II, Agni-I, Agni-II, Agni-III, Agni-IV, and Agni-V, with Agni-P nearing deployment and Agni-VI rumoured. India may streamline its missile force, focusing on medium- and long-range systems.

Around 88 operational nuclear-capable land-based missiles are estimated as of July 2026. Deployment involves design trials, induction, and user trials before operational status.

Prithvi-II, developed under the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program, has a range of 350 kilometres and is integral to deterrence. Agni-I, operational since 2007, has a range of 700 kilometres and targets Pakistan. Agni-II, with a range over 2,000 kilometres, faced delays before becoming operational in 2011.

Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists