by Nilesh Kunwar
Master Illusionists
Conditions in Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoK) have never been good. Had it really been so, Islamabad wouldn’t have to take so much effort and spend a fortune on projecting an illusion of its wellbeing and prosperity.
Readers would recall that in 2011, a US court found Kashmiri American Council (KAC) head Ghulam Nabi Fai guilty of running a “decades-long scheme” to influence the US government’s position on Kashmir. He was indicted for concealing receipt of at least $ 4 million from Pakistan army’s spy agency Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) for promoting Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative amongst US politicians.
But this wasn't an aberration.
Just four years ago, Islamabad sponsored an all-expenses-paid weeklong visit of US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar to PoK. She expectedly reciprocated by making pro-Pakistan statements which Islamabad liberally used to buttress its Kashmir charade. And despite facing a humongous financial crisis , cash-strapped Pakistan spent roughly three times more money than India on hiring lobbying firms during April-May last year.
The Bubble Bursts
By 2023, public anger due to poor governance and the abject apathy of PoK authorities along with undue curbs on basic liberties had reached the tipping point. Exorbitant increase in wheat prices due to withdrawal of subsidy and inflated electricity bills acted as the trigger that forced the helpless people to take to the streets.
The Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) which led the PoK protests comprised traders, lawyers, activists and students sans any ideological or political agenda. The 38 demands projected by JAAC concern reforms to address genuine public grievances regarding governance and fiscal issues that are adversely impacting the people of PoK.
Seeing the determination of locals, the federal and PoK governments were forced to negotiate with JAAC and announced measures to pacify the people. However, as this exercise turned out to be mere lip service, and despite official claims that outstanding differences have been resolved PoK saw protests erupting in 2024 as well as 2025 . Protests broke out once again during June this year and are continuing till date, exposing Islamabad’s falsehood about PoK.
Devious Plot
Instead of addressing public grievances, Field Marshal Asim Munir who’s the de facto ruler of Pakistan has sought to tackle this issue by applying his perverse but favourite ‘give a dog a bad name and hang it’ stratagem. So, proscribing JAAC under PoK Anti-Terrorism Act, 2014 to justify use of indiscriminate force against protesters was expected all along.
It’s amply clear that despite this policy’s miserably failure in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, Field Marshal Munir has still repeated this self-debilitating strategy in PoK. This move has in turn bared Islamabad’s dark underbelly and created yet another battle ground for Pakistan and the repression is so intense that PoK residents have been forced to demand demolition of the Line of Control that divides Kashmir.
Eight years ago, the Director General of Pakistan army’s media wing Inter Services Public Relations warned the media saying, "We have the capability to monitor social media as to who is doing what," and ever since the fourth estate has been wary of publishing anything that could annoy the ‘establishment.’ The JAAC's demand for doing away with 12 seats reserved for refugees under the PoK constitution has thus received little balanced coverage. However, some young people have dared to Sha objective analysis of the persisting faceoff regarding reserved refugee seats in PoK Assembly.
Shahid Khalid Madni, a Research and Comms Associate at the Research Society of International Law and the Quran Covenant Research Center, Pakistan writes- “JAAC’s strongest argument is based on territorial accountability. People living inside AJK directly depend on its hospitals, schools, roads, local administration and electricity system. They bear the consequences of decisions taken by the AJK government.”
He adds, “Refugee voters living in Pakistan remain politically connected to Kashmir, but their daily lives are generally governed by Pakistan’s federal and provincial institutions,” and logically concludes that JAAC therefore questions whether they should possess enough electoral influence to decide who governs Muzaffarabad.”
The authorities however maintain that being a constitutional provision contained in Article 22, refugee seats cannot be abolished through executive action. Though this is the correct legal position, nothing prevents Islamabad and the PoK Assembly to consider an appropriate constitutional amendment under Article 33 to meet the justified aspirations of the people.
Madni also reveals that “JAAC did not initially rely only on a demand for total abolition. It reportedly proposed alternative arrangements, including symbolic representation or a reduced number of seats in another institution such as the AJK Council.” He rightly opines that “These proposals show that the dispute is capable of constitutional compromise. The core demand is not necessarily the removal of refugee identity from AJK’s political structure, but the prevention of disproportionate influence over territorial governance.”
It’s no secret that Islamabad relies heavily on the 12 refugee seats in PoK Assembly to manipulate decisions and thereby maintain its iron grip over this illegally held territory, and Field Marshal Munir would be the last person to allow any constitutional amendments that would deprive him of this ace up his sleeve.
Aqueeb Shahid, a student of international relations at the International Institute for Regional & International Studies at The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan explains why people of PoK are against 12 reserved refugee seats in PoK Assembly.
He mentions that “According to the 2017 census, Kashmir's total population is about 4 million. Registered voters for the Kashmir legislative assembly number nearly 3.8 million. Of these, registered voters who are actual Kashmiri locals number 3.3 million, making up 88.5 per cent of total voters, and they decide only 33 of the 45 assembly seats. Registered refugee voters number about 0.4 million, or just 11.5 per cent of voters, but they decide 12 seats.
So, it is very unfair that the balance is not equal between these seats. On average, it takes 17,000 to 45,000 votes to decide who wins a seat in Kashmir, depending on the polling station's population. On the other hand, very few votes, sometimes even 100 to 500, can decide who wins a refugee seat. But the ministries that hold real power often go to them, and most importantly, these 12 seats can decide which government forms, causing serious tension among political parties.
He opines that “Refugees should still have a proper right to be represented, but such a large number of seats decided by so few votes will always cause fights, and this issue will not be solved that way” and logically suggests that “The seats need to be brought closer to the number of people they actually represent, not removed out of anger, and not left the same out of habit, but changed through a fair process.”
The Reality
There can’t be a bigger paradox than PoK. Article 7(2) of PoK Constitution stipulates that “No person or political party in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (PoK) shall be permitted to propagate against or take part in activities prejudicial or detrimental to the ideology of the State’s accession to Pakistan.” Yet, Islamabad refers to PoK as “Azad (independent) Kashmir.”
PoK has a semi-autonomous constitutional framework with its own president, prime minister, legislature, Supreme Court and even a state flag. Yet candidates seeking elected office must pledge allegiance to Pakistan. It may have been named “Azad Kashmir,” but its highest body called “Azad Jammu and Kashmir Council (AJKC) works under the federal government of Pakistan and is chaired by the prime minister of Pakistan.
The brutal manner in which the Pakistani security forces are dealing with peaceful protesters is really appalling. And Islamabad’s indifference towards heeding to their genuine grievances and demand for basic amenities has made the people of PoK finally realise that they’ve been cheated all along. They were told that people in J&K are being persecuted and the conditions there are unbearable, but now it’s evident that the truth is otherwise.
Munir may claim that Kashmir was, is and will remain part of Pakistan and is its jugular vein. But the brutal way in which his forces are treating PoK residents proves beyond any doubts that such hollow statements are mere rhetoric and Pakistan covets Kashmir for its real estate, not its people.
Nilesh Kunwar is a retired Indian Army Officer who has served in Jammu & Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland and Manipur. He is a keen ‘Kashmir-Watcher,’ and after retirement is pursuing his favourite hobby of writing for newspapers, journals and think-tanks. Views expressed above are the author's own
