Rising Naval Capability And Ambition

China’s quest to escalate its naval reach has entered a pivotal phase as it tests its growing fleet of aircraft carriers far from its own shores. In the months of May and June 2025, China’s navy orchestrated unprecedented exercises involving its two active carriers—Liaoning and Shandong—north of Japan. 

For the first time, both carrier groups operated beyond the “first island chain,” reaching into the Pacific near Guam, a strategic U.S. military hub and part of the “second island chain.” These manoeuvres prompted serious concern from Japan and signalled China’s intent to challenge U.S. maritime dominance in the region.

Amid these displays, Chinese pilots conducted as many as 90 take-offs and landings per day, with each carrier shielded by a retinue of warships. The exercises were not mere spectacle but enabled crews to gain crucial operational experience in unfamiliar environments, building the kind of skills required for missions globally. Notably, the carrier groups also simulated direct confrontation against each other, honing their “far-sea defence and joint operations” capacity as described by Chinese military sources.

However, these bold actions did not go unchallenged. Japan’s government sent diplomatic messages to Beijing, voicing concern over the close passage of Chinese carriers and their fighters to Japanese surveillance assets. Many regional observers interpret these drills as rehearsals for larger contingencies, such as imposing a blockade on Taiwan or deterring U.S. reinforcements from the Pacific.

Expanding Fleet: Current Strength And Future Plans

China’s aircraft carrier arsenal currently comprises:

Liaoning: The country’s first carrier, a refurbished ex-Soviet ship, entered service in 2012.
Shandong: The first domestically built carrier, operational since 2019, is an improvement over its predecessor but still reliant on conventional propulsion and a ski-jump deck for aircraft launches.
Fujian: The third and most advanced carrier, launched in 2022, is being readied for service by late 2025. Uniquely, it employs an electromagnetic launch system akin to the U.S. Navy’s latest Ford-class and will support China’s stealth fighter J-35 in greater numbers, with enhanced capabilities for heavier, better-armed aircraft.

Looking ahead, China is developing a fourth carrier—potentially nuclear-powered—which would afford it much greater endurance, allowing global deployments without the constraints of refuelling.

CarrierYear LaunchedStatusNotable Features
Liaoning2012ActiveEx-Soviet design, ski-jump ramp
Shandong2019ActiveIndigenous build, ski-jump ramp
Fujian2022Sea TrialsEM catapults, large deck, J-35 capable

Global And Regional Implications

China’s new posture puts U.S. and allied forces in the Western Pacific under fresh scrutiny, particularly around Guam and the “second island chain” where Chinese activities were previously rare. Analysts highlight that future deployments could extend to enforcing Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, supporting territorial stances versus Japan or South Korea, and even safeguarding Chinese interests as far away as the Indian Ocean and the Middle East.

Aircraft carriers deliver China "the option to conduct myriad aviation missions wherever its navy sails," dramatically expanding its reach beyond a single overseas base in Djibouti. Internally, the political symbolism of these warships has not gone unnoticed; China’s leadership leverages carrier deployments to reinforce its image as a true global power and deter adversaries.

Operational Constraints And Strategic Realities

Despite impressive advances, Chinese carriers still face formidable limitations. All of China’s current carriers are conventionally powered and lack the range, endurance, and sophisticated launch capabilities of America’s 11 nuclear-powered flat-tops. U.S. carriers also boast superior self-defence, early warning, and power projection assets. Simulations show that in direct high-end conflict, American carriers retain significant operational advantages—particularly in the open ocean.

Nevertheless, analysts caution that any clash close to China’s coast would see U.S. carriers threatened by China’s dense array of anti-ship missiles and other area-denial weaponry.

For now, China’s carrier operations are described as “rudimentary,” though its step-by-step modernization, including advances in carrier-based aircraft and ship-launched drones, continue to narrow the gap.

Strategic Purpose: From Regional Security To Global Ambition

China’s experimentation with dual-carrier formations marks the beginning of a shift in Asia-Pacific power projection. In scenarios involving Taiwan, Chinese carriers may play roles in blockades or in contesting distant approaches by U.S. forces, while remaining less critical to conflicts closer to the Chinese coastline, where land-based aircraft dominate. Looking ahead, U.S. Navy estimates suggest China could field as many as six aircraft carriers by 2040.

China’s evolving carrier program not only redefines its navy’s operational reach but also serves as a barometer for regional military rivalry, compelling the U.S. and its allies to adapt to a new era of multi-carrier competition in the Indo-Pacific.

Based On NYT Report