India-US relations in 2025 marked a year of stark contrasts, blending public displays of warmth between leaders with escalating trade disputes and strategic uncertainties. While both nations continued to label their partnership as "special", underlying tensions tested its resilience.

President Donald Trump's return to office on 20 January introduced a variable approach, prioritising "America First" policies that clashed with India's economic interests.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Washington on 12 February, mere weeks after Trump's inauguration, aimed to stabilise ties. Discussions focused on reviving bilateral trade negotiations and boosting commerce, sparking brief optimism for a comprehensive deal targeting USD 500 billion in trade by 2030. Yet, this early goodwill quickly faded amid broader geopolitical shifts.

The US administration's failure to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within its first 100 days reshaped the global landscape. India maintained its balanced stance, continuing energy imports from Russia despite Western pressure. This divergence highlighted growing frictions, as Washington's expectations for alignment clashed with New Delhi's strategic autonomy.

Trade tensions erupted in August when the US imposed tariffs of up to 50 per cent on Indian exports. This aggressive move, driven by trade imbalances and domestic US political pressures, reversed years of symbolic bonhomie. It echoed earlier disputes, such as Trump's 2018 criticisms of India's duties on Harley-Davidson motorcycles and the withdrawal of India's Generalised System of Preferences status.

The India-Pakistan dynamic added further strain. Following the 22 April Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians—mostly tourists—Trump claimed on 10 May that he and Vice President JD Vance had mediated a ceasefire.

India firmly rejected this, with Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri emphasising that direct military channels handled the de-escalation at Pakistan's insistence. New Delhi reiterated its longstanding refusal of third-party mediation.

Trade talks faltered despite initial hopes. On 30 July, Trump announced an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, followed by a US-Pakistan trade agreement. By 6 August, an executive order raised tariffs to 50 per cent, positioning India among America's most penalised trading partners. These steps underscored Trump's transactional style, favouring quick wins over long-term alliances.

A cryptic social media post from Trump on 5 September deepened uncertainty. He shared a photo of PM Modi alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, captioning it: "Looks like we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!" The remark, amid ongoing tariff battles and India's Russian oil purchases, signalled frustration.

Trump swiftly downplayed rupture speculations the next day, affirming his personal rapport with Modi: "I'll always be friends with (Narendra) Modi... India and the United States have a special relationship." Yet, disagreements over trade policies and energy ties persisted, revealing the fragility beneath public reassurances.

Rhetoric intensified during a White House roundtable with US farmers, where Trump accused India of "dumping" rice into American markets. He demanded tariffs to "easily resolve the problem", questioning exemptions while announcing a USD 12 billion aid package for US agriculture. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins attended, highlighting domestic priorities shaping foreign policy.

Strategic reassurances endured despite frictions. The US Embassy in India quoted Trump praising the nation as "an amazing country, and a very important strategic partner for America in the Indo-Pacific region." Modi echoed this, describing a recent phone call as "warm and engaging", covering bilateral ties, regional issues, and Trump's expanded Russia-Ukraine peace plan.

Diplomatic channels remained active, with discussions on US demands for greater Indian market access to corn and soybeans. India balanced these overtures with its summit alongside Putin, maintaining multi-alignment. This approach frustrated Washington but aligned with New Delhi's "Vishwa Mitra" (friend to all) doctrine.

The year's mixed signals reflected deeper shifts. Public events like the 2019 "Howdy Modi" rally, attended by over 50,000, showcased camaraderie—Trump calling India a "close friend", Modi hailing him as a "true friend in the White House." By 2025, such optics gave way to brinkmanship, exposing the limits of personal diplomacy.

US lawmakers voiced concerns that aggressive tariffs risked alienating a key Indo-Pacific partner amid shared challenges like China's assertiveness. India's projected growth to a USD 26 trillion economy by 2047, per EY reports, amplified its leverage, even as Trump prioritised short-term gains.

For New Delhi, 2025 reinforced the need for diversified partnerships—deepening ties with Russia for energy security while navigating US pressures. Washington, meanwhile, grappled with balancing containment of China against economic confrontations with India.

As the year closed, the partnership endured through high-level dialogues, but 2025 underscored its evolving nature. Shaped by Trump's unpredictability, global realignments, and domestic imperatives, India-US ties entered uncharted territory—resilient yet strained, strategic yet transactional.

Based On ANI Report