India's imports of Russian crude oil have declined sharply following the imposition of stringent US sanctions on major Kremlin-linked exporters, including Rosneft and Lukoil, which took effect on 21 November 2025.

In November, imports averaged 1.8 million barrels per day, representing over 35 per cent of India's total crude oil mix and marking a five-month high as refiners stockpiled ahead of the deadline.

Post-sanctions, flows dropped to around 1.27 million barrels per day, a reduction of 5,70,000 barrels per day from earlier peaks.​​

This downturn stems from refiners such as Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd suspending purchases to avoid breaching the sanctions, which designate crude from these entities as prohibited.

Kpler analysts project December arrivals at approximately 1.0 million barrels per day, potentially easing further to 800,000 barrels per day in the short term before stabilisation. Traditional Middle Eastern suppliers had dominated India's oil needs until Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine created discounted opportunities, elevating Russia's share from under 1 per cent to nearly 40 per cent.​​

Nayara Energy, backed by Rosneft, stands as an exception, sustaining imports of about 400,000 barrels per day in November while operating its refinery at 3,80,000-4,00,000 barrels per day.

The firm has adeptly managed outputs through domestic sales and exports to destinations like Brazil, Turkey, and Sudan, often routing clean products via ship-to-ship transfers at hubs such as Fujairah and Sohar to mask origins.

Emerging non-sanctioned Russian entities, including Tatneft, RusExport, MorExport, and Alghaf Marine DMCC, are facilitating continued access to discounted barrels.​

Refiners are pivoting to alternatives from the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas, employing opaque trading channels, ship-to-ship transfers near Mumbai, and mid-voyage diversions to sustain supplies without direct sanction exposure.

Russian exporters demonstrate adaptability by enhancing discounts and complex logistics, ensuring barrels remain viable for Indian buyers. As long as secondary sanctions remain absent, India is poised to persist with Russian crude imports via indirect routes, balancing economic gains against geopolitical pressures.​​

The decline appears temporary, with supply chains reorganising swiftly to mitigate disruptions amid India's status as the world's third-largest oil importer.

This shift underscores the interplay of US-led restrictions, global energy dynamics, and India's strategic neutrality in pursuing cost-effective energy security. Long-term adjustments may reshape import patterns, though Russian oil's discounted appeal endures.​​

Based On PTI Report