India's pursuit of fifth-generation fighter capabilities underscores a strategic imperative driven by survivability in contested airspace, encompassing stealth, sensor fusion, supercruise, and superior manoeuvrability.

These attributes enable penetration of advanced enemy defences, as highlighted in discussions on evolving air combat paradigms where such fighters serve as airborne command nodes.

The Indian Air Force's squadron strength has dwindled to around 29 squadrons by late 2025, far below the aspirational 42, amid retirements of legacy MiG-21s and delays in indigenous programs, heightening vulnerabilities against China's expanding fleet of over 66 squadrons.​​

Early engagement with fifth-generation technology began in 2000 when Russia's Sukhoi Design Bureau proposed partnership on the PAK-FA program, evolving into the Su-57. India signed a preliminary contract in 2010 for the FGFA joint venture, aiming for 250 aircraft at $35 billion, but withdrew in 2018 after investing $295 million due to stealth shortfalls, engine inadequacies, escalating costs, and limited technology transfer.

The Su-57's radar cross-section of 0.1-0.5 square metres offers only marginal improvement over 4.5-generation jets like the Rafale, contrasting sharply with the F-35's 0.0015 square metres for all-aspect stealth.​

In February 2025, during Prime Minister Modi's US visit post-President Trump's inauguration, Trump announced intent to supply F-35 Lightning II jets, framing it amid billions in military sales.

Yet scepticism persists over the F-35's suitability, given its trillion-dollar lifecycle costs, reliability issues, low availability rates, and absence of technology transfer or customisation for India's ecosystem. Incidents like a stranded F-35 in Kerala underscore logistical vulnerabilities in India's harsh operating environment, while CAATSA sanctions risks from S-400 ties further dim prospects.​​

Russia has rekindled overtures with the Su-57E export variant, offering full licensed production in India under Make in India, including source code, engines, avionics, and stealth materials—unprecedented access beyond prior Su-30MKI collaborations. A November 2025 Sukhoi delegation assessed Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's Nashik facility at 50 per cent readiness, citing needs for upgrades in composites, low-observable coatings, and precision tooling.

HAL is formulating a roadmap for infrastructure, R&D, and supply chains, positioning the Su-57 as an interim booster for long-range strikes with R-37M missiles (over 300 km range) and Kinzhal hypersonics, complementing Rafale and Su-30MKI amid two-front threats.​​

The Su-57 boasts combat experience from Syria in 2018 and Ukraine since 2022, conducting strikes despite sanctions hampering production to 25-32 units. China’s J-20, deployed across PLAAF commands by 2026, and nascent J-35 enhance regional pressures, with India's TEJAS deliveries ramping to 20 annually post-2025 engine resolutions.

Meanwhile, the indigenous AMCA gained execution model approval in May 2025, targeting first flight by 2026 and induction by 2035, leveraging TEJAS lessons for self-reliance.​

Procurement bottlenecks, convoluted processes, and over-reliance on committees have exacerbated squadron depletion, prompting calls for streamlined acquisitions and diversified suppliers. A Su-57 deal could yield two flyaway squadrons initially, with HAL producing 3-5 more, focusing on deep-strike utility over pure stealth.

Balancing immediate needs with AMCA's long-term sovereignty remains critical, as northern border escalations and Pakistan's potential J-35 acquisitions demand urgent action. Indigenous engine efforts like Kaveri and GTRE-Safran ties offer pathways to reduce import dependencies.​​

IDN (With Agency Inputs)