Pakistan's poverty levels have surged dramatically to 43.5 per cent, according to a comprehensive report from the Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC). This figure starkly contrasts with official estimates of 28.9 per cent provided by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and the Planning Commission.

The SPDC report reveals a significant 14.6 percentage point discrepancy between its findings and government data. It underscores how urban areas have borne the brunt of this crisis, with poverty escalating more sharply in cities than in rural regions.

Nationally, poverty climbed from 36.6 per cent in 2018-19 to 43.5 per cent in 2024-25. This rise has thrust an estimated 27 million additional people below the poverty line over the period.

Urban poverty specifically jumped from 32.1 per cent to 42.1 per cent. Rural poverty, meanwhile, increased from 39.3 per cent to 44.3 per cent, showing a slightly steeper gradient in rural zones by the latest measure.

The divergence in figures arises from methodological differences. The PBS relies on the Cost of Basic Needs approach, which updates historical poverty lines via the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

SPDC contends that this official method underestimates living costs for low-income households. It overlooks critical outlays such as healthcare and clean water access, leading to overly optimistic assessments.

In response, SPDC adopts the Food Energy Intake approach. This ties household spending directly to minimum caloric needs for subsistence, offering a more grounded metric for developing economies.

The institute sets distinct poverty thresholds: PKR 13,476 monthly in urban areas and PKR 10,283 in rural areas for 2024-25. These compare to the official urban line of PKR 8,484, highlighting the gap.

Drawing from the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2024-25, the report exposes widening income inequality. Wealth has concentrated further among higher-income groups, especially in urban centres.

SPDC Managing Director Muhammad Asif Iqbal emphasises the caloric method's superiority. He notes that low-income Pakistani households devote over half their earnings to food, making consumption patterns a vital indicator.

Iqbal criticises official estimates for decoupling poverty trends from economic reality. Historical data showed poverty falling even amid sluggish growth, masking true hardships.

The report paints a picture of eroding living standards across Pakistan, with urban dwellers hit hardest. It urges adoption of robust measurement tools to inform policy.

Recommendations include targeted aid for urban poverty, enhanced access to essentials, and steps to curb inequality. These aim to foster inclusive growth amid economic strain.

ANI