India’s drive to modernise its air force is increasingly being challenged by production delays, engine supply constraints and limited industrial capacity, raising concerns over whether new aircraft can enter service quickly enough to replace ageing fleets, South China Morning Post a China based media portal reported.

The issue was highlighted when Air Chief Marshal AP Singh flew his final fighter sortie in a domestically built TEJAS aircraft before retirement. While signalling support for India's indigenous aerospace sector, he also warned that the Indian Air Force (IAF) faces a serious shortage of fighter squadrons and requires the induction of roughly two squadrons, or between 36 and 40 aircraft, every year to move towards its authorised strength of 42 squadrons. He indicated that the actual requirement may be even higher.

The TEJAS fighter has become the flagship of India’s self-reliance efforts in military aviation. However, the TEJAS MK-1A entered service preparations more than two years behind schedule after delays in the delivery of GE Aerospace F404 engines, alongside longer-than-expected integration of radar, weapons and software systems.

Although engine deliveries have accelerated, with GE shipping several F404-IN20 engines and committing further deliveries, dependence on a single foreign supplier remains a major vulnerability. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the aircraft’s manufacturer, intends to produce 24 TEJAS fighters annually. The IAF has already ordered 83 MK-1As, plans to acquire another 97, and is also pursuing the more advanced TEJAS MK-2.

Long-term projections suggest India could eventually build between 350 and 400-plus TEJAS aircraft, making the type the backbone of future air power. However, retired Air Marshal Gurcharan Singh Bedi noted that India has largely mastered aircraft production technology and now faces the challenge of scaling output, which will require sustained government focus and strong industrial commitment.

The urgency stems from continuing fleet retirements. The IAF retired its final MiG-21 fighters in 2025, while six squadrons of Jaguar strike aircraft are scheduled to leave service between 2028 and 2031. India has purchased retired British Jaguars for spare parts to keep the remaining fleet operational. Further reductions are expected as MiG-29 and Mirage-2000 squadrons approach retirement during the 2030s.

With each squadron typically operating around 18 active aircraft plus reserves, keeping force levels stable will demand a steady stream of replacements.

Bedi believes HAL’s planned output alone will not be sufficient, although the proposed acquisition of 114 Rafale fighters from France under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft project could partially offset the shortfall. Negotiations continue over pricing, technology transfer, local production content and the integration of Indian systems.

Even if TEJAS production reaches its target rate and Rafale deliveries proceed as planned, matching the replacement rate required by the IAF will remain difficult. Retirements could continue to outpace inductions for several years.

India is simultaneously pursuing future programs. The first flight of the TEJAS MK-2 is expected between June and September 2027, with service induction targeted for 2030-31. The country also aims to fly a prototype of the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) by September 2028.

Several major private-sector firms and consortiums are competing for development and production roles, while international partnerships are being considered for engine development.

Retired Brigadier Sanjay Iyer argued that the principal bottleneck is not factory space but the limited pool of highly specialised test pilots, certification personnel and systems integration engineers required across multiple projects. According to him, even fully utilised TEJAS production lines would still struggle to achieve the yearly aircraft numbers sought by the air force.

He also argued that greater domestic engine manufacturing capability is essential. Delays to the MK-1A exposed the risks associated with reliance on imported propulsion systems, while repeated design modifications slowed development. Expanding private-sector participation, including allowing private firms to assemble aircraft rather than merely manufacture components, could help accelerate output.

Industry observers additionally note that India’s long-term air power plans increasingly depend on successful indigenous engine development, stronger aerospace supply chains and improved program discipline.

Recent efforts to expand TEJAS production capacity and involve private industry more deeply in AMCA development are viewed as important steps, but the gap between ambitions and available aircraft remains significant.

For now, India’s challenge is straightforward but difficult: increase fighter production quickly enough to replace retiring aircraft, while simultaneously developing the next generation of combat platforms needed to maintain air superiority in an increasingly complex regional security environment.

Agencies