Israel faces the prospect of complex coalition negotiations after exit polls from Channels 11, 12 and 13 indicated that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition camp led by former Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot had secured the 61-seat majority required to govern in the 120-member Knesset.

The projections suggested that the opposition alliance, comprising Yashar, B’Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats, would win between 50 and 53 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc was expected to secure about 50 seats. As a result, neither side appeared to have a clear or immediate route to forming the next government.

Arab parties could emerge as pivotal players in coalition negotiations. The Joint List and Ra’am were projected to win a combined 17 to 18 seats, potentially giving them significant influence over government formation. Despite their potential kingmaker status, most opposition parties have ruled out cooperation with Arab factions, with the notable exception of the Democrats under Yair Golan.

Netanyahu’s Likud was forecast to remain the largest single party in parliament, securing between 24 and 25 seats. Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to win between 21 and 23 seats, underlining the intensely competitive nature of the contest.

The exit poll results largely reflected trends seen in pre-election surveys, which consistently indicated that neither the governing coalition nor the opposition would comfortably surpass the 61-seat threshold needed for a parliamentary majority.

Complicating matters further for Netanyahu, smaller right-wing parties seen as potential coalition partners appeared unlikely to enter parliament. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists-Economic Party were both projected to fall below the 3.25 per cent electoral threshold required for representation in the Knesset.

The election also delivered one of the highest levels of voter participation in Israeli history. According to official figures from the Central Elections Committee, turnout reached 74.3 per cent by 8 pm, significantly higher than the 70.63 per cent recorded during the 2022 election.

Earlier in the day, participation had already reached record levels. Turnout stood at 66.7 per cent by 6 pm, nine percentage points above the equivalent figure in the previous election and the highest ever recorded at that hour since such measurements began.

Large numbers of voters continued to arrive at polling stations throughout the day. Midday turnout reached 31.5 per cent by 12 pm before rising to 55.7 per cent by 4 pm, comfortably exceeding comparable figures from recent elections and reflecting exceptional public engagement.

The high turnout prompted urgent last-minute appeals from political leaders. Netanyahu released a video message urging Likud supporters to vote immediately, arguing that strong mobilisation by Arab parties and rival political groups could result in a “leftist government”.

Describing the election as a decisive moment for the country, Netanyahu encouraged supporters to bring family members and neighbours to polling stations and warned right-wing voters against backing splinter movements. “Only this way do we win, and it is possible to win, but you must go out!” he said, while urging voters to support Likud using its ballot letters, Mahal.

Eisenkot responded by accusing the Prime Minister of employing “tricks, lies and intimidation” in an effort to influence voter participation. In a social media message, he argued that such tactics endangered the possibility of political change and urged supporters to remain active until polls closed at 10 pm.

The election was the first national vote since the Hamas-led massacre of 7 October 2023, an event that continues to shape political debate across Israel. Issues surrounding security failures, accountability for the attack, national leadership and the strength of democratic institutions dominated the campaign.

Netanyahu, one of the most influential figures in Israeli politics and a central presence in government for 19 years, entered the contest facing one of his most serious electoral challenges from Eisenkot. The former military chief and his Yashar party had led several opinion polls before election day, setting the stage for the closely fought contest reflected in the exit polls.

ANI