Pakistan is facing a severe agricultural emergency as the Sukkur Barrage’s Right Bank Canal System suffers a critical irrigation water shortage during the peak Kharif crop season.

The crisis has left millions of acres of farmland in jeopardy, particularly in Larkana and Qambar-Shahdadkot districts, as well as parts of Balochistan that depend on the North West Canal.

The abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty by India has indirectly worsened Pakistan’s vulnerability by removing a stabilising mechanism for transboundary flows and data-sharing. Without treaty safeguards, Pakistan is exposed to greater variability in flows, floods, and droughts. India can now pursue storage dam projects or inter-basin transfers that were previously restricted, raising long-term risks.

The Sukkur crisis stems from domestic distribution failures under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord, not from India’s upstream actions. Current shortages are due to internal overuse and mismanagement, not reduced inflows from India. The situation has exposed deep-rooted governance failures and intensified internal resource conflicts, with water theft and inequitable distribution worsening the shortfall.

The shortages across the canal network have reached alarming levels. The North West Canal is facing a deficit of 64.1 per cent, the Rice Canal 38 per cent, and the Dadu Canal 82 per cent. Farmers in these regions are unable to begin seasonal cultivation, with many still waiting for water to reach the tail-end to prepare paddy nurseries.

The Dadu Canal, which has an allocation of 4,995 cusecs, is receiving only 860 cusecs. Similarly, the North West Canal’s allocation of 6,260 cusecs has been reduced to 2,100 cusecs, while the Rice Canal is receiving 5,300 cusecs against its entitlement of 8,700 cusecs.

The crisis is compounded by excess withdrawals in Punjab and at Taunsa Barrage. Punjab is currently drawing 53,394 cusecs against its allocated share of 44,000 cusecs, an excess of 21.35 per cent. Taunsa Barrage is lifting 25,694 cusecs against its entitlement of 24,000 cusecs, reflecting an over-withdrawal of 9.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, the pond level at Chashma Barrage has continued to rise, climbing from 644.9 feet to 646.4 feet, signalling water accumulation in the upper reaches while downstream scarcity worsens.

Sindh had submitted an indent of 130,000 cusecs, but only 100,000 cusecs are being released, leaving the province with a massive shortfall. Irrigation officials have raised particular concerns about the controversial Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal, which remains operational and is drawing approximately 16,500 cusecs — a volume greater than the combined flow of several tail-end canals that irrigate major agricultural zones.

This practice directly violates the principles of equitable water distribution enshrined in the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991, underscoring Pakistan’s failure to uphold its own constitutional agreements.

The mismanagement has triggered a political backlash. Pakistan Peoples Party Sindh President Nisar Ahmed Khuhro has warned that depriving Sindh of its rightful water share during Kharif amounts to an “economic massacre.”

He emphasised that Sindh produces 67 per cent of Pakistan’s agricultural output, including 5.5 million tons of rice annually, generating $1.4 billion in exports. Cutting water allocations, he argued, is crippling the province’s economy and undermining national food security.

Farmers and landowners in Shahdadkot, Qubo Saeed Khan, and other areas have been unable to begin cultivation due to years of delayed development and incomplete remodelling of irrigation channels. Ishaq Mugheri, former president of the Sindh Abadgar Board’s Qambar-Shahdadkot chapter, highlighted that the shortages in the Right Bank canals are devastating farming communities.

He also warned of potential disputes between Sindh and Balochistan over their respective water shares from the Grang Regulator, as the North West Canal — a key distribution channel — is receiving less water than required.

The crisis has laid bare Pakistan’s chronic mismanagement of its agricultural infrastructure, with federal authorities criticised for failing to regulate excess withdrawals in the upper reaches or streamline canal operations.

Immediate steps are being demanded to ensure Sindh receives its rightful share, regulate link canal operations, and secure adequate water supply to Sukkur Barrage’s Right Bank canals to sustain farming in Larkana, Shahdadkot, Dadu, Shikarpur, NW Canals, and Balochistan.

Without urgent intervention, the crisis risks escalating into a broader political and economic confrontation, threatening food security and internal stability.

ANI