India’s delay in finalising the Rafale acquisition and advancing the AMCA program has created a widening capability gap for the Indian Air Force, leaving it vulnerable as China and Pakistan induct more advanced fifth-generation fighters.

The escalating costs and late timelines mean India will pay a heavy strategic and financial price if urgent corrective measures are not taken.

India’s renewed push to acquire 114 Rafale fighters and accelerate the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program has revived hopes of strengthening the Indian Air Force. However, delays have already widened capability gaps amid growing regional security challenge.

The government has initiated two significant steps: reviving the 2007 Request for Proposal for Rafales under the MRFA framework, and issuing a Request for Proposal to three Indian private companies for AMCA production, despite their lack of prior fighter manufacturing experience. This marks a potential shift in India’s defence procurement approach.

The Rafale journey began with the 2007 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft tender, where after trials of six aircraft types, the Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon emerged as contenders. Although the Eurofighter was rated higher, the UPA government opted for the Rafale in 2012 but deferred the final decision.

MoD later ordered only 36 Rafales in 2016, leaving the Air Force dissatisfied. In 2018, the government attempted to reconfigure the original 126 aircraft into a new MRFA framework, but eight years later, a conclusive decision remains elusive.

Had the deal been finalised in 2018, India would have paid USD 20 billion; now the cost has risen to nearly USD 39 billion for 114 aircraft, with 18–24 produced in France and the remainder in India.

The AMCA program, designed by the Aeronautical Development Agency, has seen progress with stealth testing in Hyderabad, yet remains years away from induction. Defence experts believe it will be a miracle if a fully certified, weaponised AMCA joins the fleet by the mid-2030s.

Even with ten aircraft delivered annually, the Air Force would only have six squadrons by the mid-2040s. By then, adversaries will have upgraded fifth-generation fighters such as the J-20 and J-35, with Pakistan expected to receive two squadrons of J-35s by the end of this year.

The Indian Air Force currently faces a squadron strength crisis, with only 29 squadrons against an authorised 42. Retirements of MiG-29 and Mirage-2000 squadrons will further deepen the shortfall.

The indigenous TEJAS MK-2 is seen as a solution, but uncertainty over US GE-F-414 engine supply remains a concern despite a technology transfer agreement. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited has yet to deliver contracted TEJAS MK-1A fighters, compounding delays.

The Letter of Request for Rafales was submitted to France during Air Chief Marshal AP Singh’s visit in June 2026. France is expected to respond within two to three months, with negotiations likely to conclude by March 2027.

Deliveries, however, may not begin until the early 2030s, leaving a decade-long gap in capability. The Defence Ministry has yet to outline strategies to bridge this gap, despite the lessons of Operation Sindoor in May 2025, which underscored the urgent need for advanced fighters.

India’s reliance on imported platforms raises concerns about escalating costs and overdependence. While Rafales provide a qualitative edge, they cannot alone resolve the quantitative weakness. 

Indigenous programs such as AMCA and TEJAS MK-2 must be accelerated to ensure a balanced force structure. Without decisive action, India risks falling behind its adversaries in aerial combat capability, paying a heavy price both financially and strategically.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)