India’s air-power challenges are becoming increasingly difficult to overlook, with senior military leadership openly expressing concerns about the country’s combat aviation capabilities and the growing technological advances being made by regional rivals.

Air Chief Marshal AP Singh recently highlighted reports of Pakistan’s collaboration with China on the acquisition of fifth-generation fighter aircraft, describing the development as a matter of concern for India. His remarks reflected wider anxieties about the changing security environment and the need for India to maintain a credible air deterrent.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is currently grappling with a significant shortfall in fighter aircraft. Air Chief Marshal Singh warned that delays in the induction of new combat platforms are undermining operational readiness and slowing efforts to rebuild squadron strength.

According to the Air Chief, the IAF must induct between 36 and 40 fighter aircraft every year merely to prevent further erosion of its combat fleet and gradually move towards its sanctioned strength of 42 fighter squadrons.

At present, the IAF operates only 29 active fighter squadrons, amounting to roughly 522 combat aircraft. This is substantially below the authorised requirement and reflects years of procurement delays, production bottlenecks and the retirement of ageing platforms, particularly the MiG-21 fleet.

Pakistan, by comparison, maintains approximately 25 combat squadrons with around 450 fighter aircraft. While the gap between India and Pakistan remains in India’s favour numerically, the difference is narrowing in certain capability areas as Islamabad accelerates military modernisation efforts with Chinese support.

China remains far ahead of both countries in terms of air power. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force is estimated to field roughly 66 combat squadrons and around 1,200 fighter aircraft, providing Beijing with a substantial quantitative and technological advantage.

One of the most pressing concerns for India is the delayed delivery of the Tejas Mk-1A fighter aircraft. The indigenous platform is central to the IAF’s modernisation plans and forms a critical component of efforts to restore squadron strength.

In February 2021, the Defence Ministry signed a contract worth ₹48,000 crore with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for 83 TEJAS MK-1A aircraft. Deliveries were originally scheduled to commence in March 2024.

However, despite the passage of the delivery deadline, not a single aircraft has yet entered IAF service. The Air Chief has acknowledged that the delay is having a direct impact on operational preparedness and combat capability.

Industry observers have attributed the slippage to a combination of factors, including supply-chain disruptions, delays in the delivery of GE F404 engines, certification requirements, systems integration challenges and broader production constraints within the aerospace manufacturing ecosystem.

The prolonged delay has intensified scrutiny of India’s defence-industrial capabilities and raised questions about whether indigenous production targets are aligned with actual manufacturing capacity.

Concerns extend beyond the Tejas platform. Attention is increasingly focused on the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), India’s ambitious fifth-generation fighter project that is expected to serve as the cornerstone of the country’s future combat aviation strategy.

Should the AMCA encounter major delays, pressure could grow to acquire a foreign fifth-generation platform as an interim solution. Among the options frequently discussed is Russia’s Su-57 stealth fighter, although no decision has been announced.

Such a development would inevitably fuel debate about the gap between India’s self-reliance aspirations and its ability to deliver advanced military systems within required timelines.

Meanwhile, Pakistan appears to be moving more rapidly on its next-generation fighter plans. Reports indicate that the Pakistan Air Force has approved the acquisition of approximately 40 Chinese J-35 stealth fighters.

Pakistani aircrew are reportedly undergoing training in China, suggesting that preparations for the induction of the aircraft may already be under way.

If completed, the acquisition would mark a significant enhancement of Pakistan’s air-combat capabilities and could provide Islamabad with access to stealth technology that remains absent from South Asia’s operational military balance.

For India, the concern extends beyond the introduction of any single aircraft type. Defence planners must account for the possibility of simultaneous military pressure from both China and Pakistan.

A two-front contingency involving conflict along the northern frontier with China and the western border with Pakistan would place extraordinary demands on the IAF’s limited fighter inventory, operational infrastructure, trained personnel, logistics networks and missile reserves.

Such a scenario reinforces the importance of rapidly replenishing squadron strength, modernising combat fleets and ensuring that indigenous aerospace programs meet delivery commitments.

The controversy has also generated wider political debate. Critics argue that the repeated delays affecting major military programs undermine the credibility of official claims surrounding self-reliance in defence manufacturing.

Questions are increasingly being raised about procurement processes, industrial planning, project management and accountability mechanisms within the broader defence sector.

At the same time, concerns have emerged regarding India’s regional diplomatic environment. Some analysts contend that deteriorating relationships with several neighbouring countries and the strengthening strategic partnership between China and Pakistan have complicated India’s geopolitical position.

The convergence of military modernisation in Pakistan, China’s expanding military capabilities and delays affecting India’s own fighter acquisition programs has heightened concern among strategic observers.

Against this backdrop, maintaining robust defence capabilities has become an urgent national priority.

With fighter squadron numbers well below authorised levels, key aircraft deliveries overdue and future programs still under development, the challenge facing India is no longer merely one of procurement. It is increasingly becoming a test of whether strategic ambitions, industrial capacity and national-security requirements can be aligned in time to meet an evolving regional threat environment.

Agencies