Once again, the whole world is on the verge of a new world war, due to the actions of the US leadership…

by Lukas Ramonas

It seems that the current president of America is trying hard to leave his mark on world history. Unfortunately, he has failed to make anything really useful. That is why, Donald Trump made the main goal of his presidential term unleashing of the military conflicts in all corners of the globe.

We can see it in the Baltic States, where the number of American troops and equipment has reached its historical record under the leadership of Donald Trump since the Cold War.

The situation is critical. As we know, U.S. European Command and the Department of the Army announced a few months ago the largest deployment of U.S.-based forces to Europe for an exercise in the last 25 years.

According to the officials, Defender-Europe 20 military exercise, and linked activities, will increase strategic readiness and interoperability by exercising the U.S. military’s ability to rapidly deploy a large combat-credible force and equipment from the United States to Europe; and alongside its allies and partners, quickly respond to a potential crisis.

The joint multinational training exercise is scheduled to take place from April to May 2020, with personnel and equipment movements occurring from February through July 2020. Approximately 37,000 U.S., allied and partner nation service members are expected to participate with roughly 20,000 soldiers deploying from the U.S.

Let’s remind that Vienna Document 2011 On Confidence and Security Building Measures of Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe limits the amount of soldiers involved in exercise by 13 thousand troops. But Trump doesn’t give a damn about international treaties. He also doesn’t give a damn about the fact that exercises will be held close to the Russian border. We can just thank Russia for its patience and understanding, because any other country could take a tough response to such actions.

Not getting a war in Europe, Trump is trying to aggravate tensions in the Middle East, where the situation almost came to the mass death of American troops in the Iran’s missiles attack. And it is not surprising that in the situation with Iran, it was Trump who made the first move and ordered the assassination of an official of another state.

By the way, the Western allies of the United States opposed Trump’s intention to eliminate Iranian general. And the only Estonian President Kersti Qalyulayd resolutely and unconditionally supported the assassination of the commander of Al-Quds of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Kassem Suleimani.

Other politicians, whose support the American president had counted on, turned away from him. Apparently, the leaders of most countries of the world realised the futility of aggressive politics and the use of military force and relied on diplomacy.

For example, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has already called on Washington and Tehran to stop using weapons to open the door to dialogue.

Even NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, condemning the Iranian missile attack on US military bases, announced the withdrawal of part of the Alliance’s military contingent from Iraq as a “precautionary measure to protect its personnel”.

There are several reasons for it.

Firstly, no one wants Trump’s adventure to escalate into a major war in the Middle East.

Secondly, the assassination of General Suleymani rallied the most diverse forces of the region against the Western coalition and thereby strengthened Tehran’s position here.

Thirdly, in February, parliamentary elections will be held in Iran and the chances of radical forces are now sharply increasing there. So the opposition fostered by the West faces a serious defeat.

Finally, Europeans are frightened by the prospect of finally releasing nuclear gin from the Iranian bottle and earning a headache for many years.

As Russian analyst Gennady Granovsky says, Donald Trump began to search for situational allies outside the alliance feeling the shaky ground in NATO. On Tuesday, he had a great thorough discussion with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The basis for negotiations was the so-called Memorandum of Association for Logistics Exchange (LEMOA), signed between the two countries in August 2016.

In accordance with this document, Washington can use the military infrastructure of India to provide logistical support to the US expeditionary forces with the consent of the Delhi authorities. Following the talks, the Indian Foreign Ministry announced Modi’s readiness to cooperate with America “in areas of mutual interest.”

Media noted that Trump convinced the Indian prime minister that General Kassem Suleimani, who was killed by the Americans, was implicated in the preparation of the terrorist attacks in New Delhi. Allegedly, this argument finally convinced Modi of the need to support the US position.

In fact, the Indian prime minister has long been seen as “multi-vector” in favour of the Americans. During his reign, Washington and Delhi signed not only LEMOA, but also a number of agreements on military-technical cooperation, including the transfer to the Indians, including advanced technologies and weapons.

Now, India must pay for this “pleasure” by collaborating with America during a hot time for it. Experts, however, are inclined to believe that things will not come to real action against Iran. Most likely, Trump is simply raising stakes in pressure on Tehran, at the same time demonstrating to his allies in the North Atlantic alliance how they can do without them.

It must be remembered that in the Gulf region, West Asia and Afghanistan, about 65,000 thousand US troops are stationed. If desired, Washington can independently resolve the conflict with Iran in its favour. America needs allies only in order to give certain legitimacy to its aggressive actions. Indeed, whatever one may say, the terrorist assassination of General Kassem Suleimani does not fit this criterion.

It seems that it was precisely in order to give legitimacy to his aggressive plans that Trump needed the accommodating Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi today.

Lukas Ramonas is a defence analyst who tracks military and strategic issues closely