In a significant escalation of tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, Pakistan has declared that any threat to its territory from India will be met with "firm reciprocal measures." This stern warning comes amidst rapidly deteriorating bilateral relations following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, 2025, which killed 26 people in the tourist destination of Pahalgam.

The attack, reportedly claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be a splinter group of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, has triggered a diplomatic crisis not seen between the two nations in years, with both countries implementing severe retaliatory measures against each other.

The recent crisis erupted after gunmen killed 26 people in Pahalgam, a scenic tourist destination in Indian-administered Kashmir, marking the deadliest attack in the region in 25 years. Following the attack, India swiftly responded with stringent measures against Pakistan, accusing Islamabad of supporting "cross-border terrorism".

On Wednesday, April 23, the Indian government announced five major retaliatory steps, including the suspension of the crucial Indus Waters Treaty, closure of the main Wagah border crossing, downgrading of diplomatic ties, and withdrawal of visas for Pakistani nationals. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his first public address after the attack, vowed to "identify, track, and punish" those responsible, adding that "the punishment will be significant and stringent, which these terrorists would have never even thought about".

In response to India's actions, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened a rare meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) with top military officials, including the powerful Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, on Thursday, April 24. Following this high-level meeting, Pakistan announced a series of tit-for-tat measures against India.

The statement released by Prime Minister Sharif's office declared: "Any threat to Pakistan's sovereignty and to the security of its people will be met with firm reciprocal measures in all domains". These measures include suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement, which mandates both countries to resolve conflicts peacefully through bilateral negotiations and respect each other's sovereignty.

Additionally, Pakistan announced the suspension of all bilateral agreements with India, closure of borders, and cessation of all trade, including transit trade from any third country through Pakistan.

The diplomatic crisis continued to deepen as Pakistan announced the expulsion of Indian diplomats and cancellation of visas for Indian nationals, with the exception of Sikh pilgrims. In a particularly concerning development, Pakistan has closed its airspace with immediate effect "for all Indian owned or Indian operated airlines" and warned that it would consider any attempt by India to stop the supply of water from the Indus River an "act of war" to be responded with "full force across the complete spectrum of national power".

The Wagah border crossing in Punjab, a significant point of contact between the two nations, has also been closed, with Pakistan declaring that "all cross-border transit from India through this route shall be suspended, without exception". Furthermore, Pakistan has declared Indian military advisers "persona non grata," directing them to leave Pakistan immediately.

Amid the escalating tensions, Pakistan has challenged India to present evidence linking it to the Pahalgam attack. Pakistani Minister Iq Dar called on India to "share with us and the international community" any proof of Pakistan's involvement in the incident, suggesting that India was engaging in unfounded accusations.

This defensive stance comes as Indian Prime Minister Modi has intensified his rhetoric, stating that India would take strong action against terrorists and their supporters. The attack has sent shockwaves throughout India, particularly because it specifically targeted civilian tourists, marking a shift from previous incidents in Kashmir that primarily focused on security forces.

The current crisis occurs against a backdrop of longstanding tensions between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir region. Since their independence from British rule in 1947, the two countries have fought multiple wars and engaged in numerous skirmishes, with Kashmir remaining a flashpoint.

In recent years, China has increasingly become involved in the volatile region, stepping up its own border dispute with India while enhancing military, political, and economic cooperation with Pakistan, notably through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The fighting and intimidation tactics in the region have prompted greater militarization along the disputed borders, raising concerns about a potential conflict involving China and Pakistan against India.

Prior to this current escalation, there had been instances of violence along the India-Pakistan border despite a 2021 ceasefire agreement. In June 2023, the Pakistani army accused Indian forces of killing two civilians along the Line of Control (LOC), the first such occurrence since the ceasefire. A second similar incident occurred less than a month later, according to police in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. 

In November, Indian and Pakistani soldiers exchanged gun and mortar fire across the disputed border, resulting in the death of an Indian border guard. Pakistan has also accused India of committing extrajudicial killings on its territory, allegations which the Indian foreign minister dismissed as "malicious anti-Indian propaganda".

The current crisis unfolds under the leadership of Shehbaz Sharif, who began his second term as Prime Minister of Pakistan on March 3, 2024, after receiving 201 votes against 92 votes for PTI-backed Omar Ayub Khan. Sharif's government has faced significant domestic challenges, including economic difficulties and political protests.

His administration has continued controversial policies such as the unofficial ban on the social media platform Twitter (X) and the installation of an internet firewall, which has been criticized for censorship and its negative impact on businesses. The escalating tensions with India add another layer of complexity to Sharif's governance challenges, potentially affecting his already contested leadership and Pakistan's fragile economic situation.

The rapid deterioration in India-Pakistan relations following the Pahalgam attack represents one of the most serious diplomatic crises between the two nuclear-armed neighbours in recent years. Pakistan's declaration that any threat to its territory will be met with "firm reciprocal measures" signals a dangerous escalation that could have far-reaching implications for regional stability.

The suspension of critical agreements, closure of borders and airspace, and cessation of trade indicate a comprehensive breakdown in bilateral relations. As both sides harden their positions, with India demanding action against terror groups and Pakistan requesting evidence of its involvement, the international community watches anxiously, concerned about the potential for further escalation between these nuclear-armed neighbours.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the prospect of diplomatic resolution appearing increasingly distant as retaliatory measures continue to mount on both sides.

Agencies