Western intelligence services from two NATO nations suspect that Russia is developing a novel anti-satellite weapon specifically aimed at Elon Musk's Starlink constellation.

This so-called "zone-effect" system would deploy hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets into low-Earth orbit, creating destructive clouds of shrapnel to disable multiple satellites simultaneously.

The intelligence findings, reviewed by The Associated Press, highlight Russia's intent to counter Western space dominance that has bolstered Ukraine's battlefield communications amid the ongoing invasion now in its fourth year.

Starlink's thousands of satellites, orbiting at approximately 550 kilometres above Earth, provide high-speed internet crucial for Ukrainian military operations, including weapons targeting and drone control. 

Russian officials have repeatedly labelled such commercial satellites as legitimate targets, especially after deploying the S-500 missile system capable of striking low-orbit assets. Unlike Russia's 2021 direct-ascent missile test that destroyed a defunct satellite and generated hazardous debris, this new weapon could release pellets from unlaunched clusters of small satellites for broader area coverage.

Experts express scepticism about the weapon's practicality due to its indiscriminate nature. Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation doubts its deployment, arguing it would unleash uncontrollable chaos affecting satellites worldwide, including those operated by Russia and China for communications and defence.

Brigadier General Christopher Horner of Canada's Space Division deems it plausible, citing prior US claims of Russian nuclear space weapon pursuits, though he warns pellets could blanket entire orbital regimes, endangering all assets in similar paths.

The tiny pellets, mere millimetres in size, would evade current ground- and space-based detection systems, complicating attribution to Moscow if satellites begin failing. Clayton Swope from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies notes that while untrackable initially, patterns of damage—likely to vulnerable solar panels—would reveal the cause, as seen in a recent debris incident crippling a Chinese spacecraft. Over time, pellets and resultant debris would de-orbit, posing risks to lower-altitude facilities like China's Tiangong station and the International Space Station.

Russia's official stance contrasts sharply with these allegations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to queries, but Moscow has advocated UN measures against orbital weapons, with President Vladimir Putin denying plans for nuclear space armaments.

The French Space Command described recent Russian actions in space as irresponsible and hostile, while the US Space Force offered no comment.

Development status remains opaque, with findings indicating active research but no details on testing, timelines, or deployment readiness. An anonymous official confirmed ongoing work, deeming deployment timing too sensitive for disclosure. Samson posits it might represent experimental research by scientists or a narrative to spur Western counterspace investments and a harder line against Russia.

Such a weapon could serve as a "weapon of fear" for deterrence without firing a shot, analysts suggest. Swope highlights its potential to threaten adversaries amid escalating space tensions, where Russia has tested systems like Nudol that could already endanger Starlink.

Samson counters that Russia's heavy investments in spacefaring capabilities make self-inflicted disruption unlikely, as it would forfeit Moscow's own orbital advantages.

This development underscores growing militarisation of space, with Starlink's role in Ukraine amplifying its strategic value. Broader implications include risks to global satellite-dependent services, prompting calls for enhanced space domain awareness and international norms. As Russia bolsters anti-satellite arsenals, NATO and allies face pressure to safeguard constellations vital for modern warfare and civilian infrastructure.

International Agencies