India performed creditably in the May 2025 India-Pakistan war, according to Christopher Clary, a Fellow at the Stimson Centre’s South Asia program. The report confirms that India struck deep into Pakistan with missiles and drones while mounting a robust defence against similar Pakistani assaults.

Pakistani air defences disrupted or intercepted certain Indian strikes, yet Pakistan revealed significant vulnerabilities to Indian air operations. Clary details this in his report, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025,” released by the Stimson Centre on 28 May 2025.

The conflict marked several military firsts. India deployed cruise missiles against Pakistan for the first time, including the BrahMos—co-developed with Russia—and the European SCALP-EG.

Pakistan, in turn, employed conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles on Indian soil, notably the Fatah-I and Fatah-II, and possibly others. Drones also featured prominently, marking their debut in India-Pakistan hostilities with both sides aiming to inflict damage rather than mere smuggling or surveillance along the Line of Control in Kashmir.

On 7 May, Pakistan achieved early defensive success in counterair operations. It claimed to have downed six Indian Air Force jets—five over Kashmir and one over Punjab—with evidence supporting up to four losses.

A Washington Post visual investigation pinpointed three crash sites in India: two in Indian Kashmir and one in Punjab. It identified two as French Rafale and Mirage-2000 aircraft, presuming them Indian given the absence of Indian claims attributing them to Pakistani losses.

Reuters reported three aircraft downed in Kashmir alone on 7 May, citing local sources, while foreign officials confirmed at least one or two losses in India during the conflict’s opening hours.

The precise method of Pakistan’s counterair achievements remains unclear. International observers rate Indian Air Force pilots highly skilled, and the downed jets included modern types like the Rafale, with deliveries to India commencing only in 2020.

Clary suggests India’s focus on terrorist-linked targets in the initial 7 May strikes may explain the losses. A wider effort to suppress Pakistani air defences could have risked military casualties, undermining India’s restraint to avert escalation.

Political and military imperatives seemingly clashed here. Some analysts attribute Pakistan’s edge to superior sensor integration between ground, air assets, and fighters, previewed earlier with Chinese PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles.

Debris from PL-15 missiles recovered in India confirms their use. A US official informed Reuters of Chinese J-10 involvement in downing Indian jets, implying PL-15 efficacy.

The Indian Air Force contested PL-15 hits, citing unexploded missiles on Indian territory as evidence of misses. Surface-to-air missiles might have claimed some aircraft, with a retired Indian Army general favouring the Chinese HQ-9 over PL-15.

Friendly fire remains a possibility, as fratricide challenges even advanced air forces like India’s.

Kashmir endured heavy small-arms, mortar, and artillery fire, with sporadic tank and anti-tank guided missile use. Neither side sought permanent territorial gains along the Line of Control, confining efforts to lethal engagements from fortified positions augmented by minor raids.

Pakistan alleged civilian deaths from initial Indian strikes, but most non-combatant casualties stemmed from Kashmir cross-border firing, exceeding 50 lives lost.

Pakistan initiated drone and missile assaults on 15 Indian sites in western and northern India overnight on 7-8 May, continuing into 8-9 May. India’s air defences responded with anti-aircraft guns and missiles against these “saturating” waves, as termed by the Director General of Air Operations.

India reported minimal damage, corroborated by satellite imagery. In retaliation on the morning of 8 May, India targeted Pakistani air defence radars and systems at multiple locations, stressing non-escalatory parity in domain and intensity.

Evidence overwhelmingly confirms a neutralised air defence radar in Lahore. India deployed Israeli Harpy and Harop drones, plus British Banshee decoys, with matching debris found across Pakistan.

Pakistani reports noted 11 attacked or intercepted sites, admitting one incident wounded four soldiers and partially damaged equipment—lending credence to India’s radar-neutralisation claim.

The night of 8-9 May saw a possibly larger Pakistani drone offensive on India, yielding no evident infrastructure harm. India countered with armed drones at four Pakistani air defence sites, destroying one radar per official briefings.

Pakistan claimed 48 drone shootdowns from 8 May evening to 9 May midday, though lacking contemporary proof.

US Vice President J.D. Vance, in a 8 May interview, urged de-escalation to prevent regional or nuclear war, advocating diplomacy without direct involvement.

By 9 May morning, US intelligence turned “alarming,” prompting Vance’s call to Prime Minister Narendra Modi around 9:30 pm IST, warning of escalation risks into the weekend. Washington likely detected Pakistani short-range ballistic missile preparations, with Fatah-I/II used that night.

Pakistan tracked nuclear readiness indicators. Its military spokesperson rejected de-escalation around Vance’s call, vowing retaliation on India’s terms.

The 9-10 May night climaxed with escalated standoff strikes on military targets. Near Sirsa, India—130 km from the border—intercepted what press suggested was a Pakistani Fatah-II missile post-midnight.

Indian officials noted several high-speed missile attacks after 0140 hours on Punjab air bases.

At 2:30 am Pakistan time, India hit Nur Khan airbase in Chaklala cantonment near Rawalpindi, audible in Islamabad. Air Marshal Bharti later described it as a calibrated response to Pakistani drone “relentlessness,” targeting airbases, command centres, infrastructure, and defences to send a message.

Strikes hit Nur Khan, Rafiqui, Rahim Yar Khan, Sukkur, followed by Sarghoda, Bholari, Jacobabad, plus Murid command targets and radars at Chunian, Arifwala, Pasrur.

Satellite imagery verifies most hits. India cratered runways at Sarghoda and Rahim Yar Khan; hangars at Sukkur, Bholari, Jacobabad sustained damage, sans confirmed aircraft losses.

Rumours of a Kirana Hills nuclear facility strike near Sarghoda lacked evidence; the IAF denied it. Nur Khan’s proximity to Strategic Plans Division offices—over a kilometre distant—signalled warning without nuclear provocation, per Clary: India knocked on doors, not the nuclear one.

India’s 9-10 May feats impressed despite 7 May setbacks. It blended decoy and anti-radiation drones like Harop with standoff weapons: BrahMos, SCALP cruise missiles, Israeli Crystal Maze and Rampage rockets. Prior drone operations likely softened Pakistani defences.

India’s innovative assault largely bypassed Pakistani air cover; 7 May surprises did not recur. Pakistan’s claims of major damage at 15 Indian airbases lack visual backing, though India admitted limited harm at Udhampur, Pathankot, Adampur, and Bhuj from drones.

Fatah-I/II missiles showed no observable impact via satellites, suggesting interceptions or misses—India claimed full success. Pakistan targeted India’s S-400 at Adampur with a Chinese cruise missile, per claims, but India reported failure. No Pakistani photos emerged despite promises.

India’s anti-drone systems—kinetic and non-kinetic, informed by Armenia-Azerbaijan and Russia-Ukraine lessons—complemented air defences, minimising sophisticated Pakistani drone damage.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaged persistently. In crisis finale on 9 May, he called Pakistan Army chief General Asim Munir, offering US aid for talks to prevent future clashes.

Rubio likely secured Munir’s ceasefire nod, echoed with Foreign Minister Dar. Escalating military action plus US pressure prompted Pakistan’s halt-if-India-halts signal, which India accepted, ending the war.

Based On STIMSON Centre Report