by Brig Arun Bajpai

It has been reported that it is UAE, which was involved in back door diplomacy along with Pakistan that brokered cease fire along 778 km long LOC with Pakistan. Question is why did India agree to it, thereby giving a breather to Pakistan?

It was early 2020 that Pakistan after watching Luke warm reaction in US against Chinese adventure in East Ladakh, where the Chinese moved forward and occupied Indian territories in Pangong So, Gogra, Depsang and Hot Springs felt that now it can take on India, Pakistan being a Chinese proxy. So it upped the ante and the cross border firing incidents got enhanced to more than 4000 in 2020. India also reciprocated in Kind and the entire LOC became a very dangerous place.

China along with Pakistan was banking on the fact that they felt that new American president Joe Biden will not continue with the hard line policy against China of the previous incumbent, President Donald Trump, American response to Chinese Adventurism in East Ladakh was case in point. However China was surprised with stubborn reply of India who was adamant on China going back in East Ladakh and succeeded also in Galwan Valley and Pangong So.

China got further unnerved because of Japanese response in Senkaku Iceland, Chinese adventure was met in South China by small powers like Philippines and Vietnam with stubbornness. Then the Iceland country Taiwan sent its own fighters to checkmate China and its PM gave a statement that if China attacks Taiwan it will prefer to go down fighting. US also deployed its Air craft Career Theodore Roosevelt along with task force to defend Taiwan. India not only extended full support to Taiwan it also chose to fully participate in QUAD ex consisting of US, Japan, Australia, India and soon to join France.

Now China has realised that any day India can sort out Pakistan and even take those areas of POK illegally occupied by Pakistan. China also knows that now for US, India is a major pivot in Indo-pacific region. So if China in any way interferes in any war with India - Pakistan then US will definitely come in and China will be fighting a two front war if not three. In other words it is China who is nudging Pakistan to cool down and hence Pakistani Army Chief Bajwa requesting India to forget old enmity and negotiate on table as also agree to cease fire on LOC.

But why is India trying to follow the script of China, by agreeing to cease fire when we have the upper hand? India knows that Pakistani Army is a political Army incapable of fighting professional army like Indian Army. So why not force Pakistani Army to either stop its jihadi cross border activities or else no cease fire? Jihad infiltrators continue to cross the border from Pakistan, even while I write this article there is fire fight going on between jihads’ hiding in a masjid and security forces in Shopian in J&K.

Brig Arun Bajpai (Retd) is a distinguished Defence and Strategic Analyst. Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of IDN. IDN does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same