The recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan has been described as "quite remarkable" by Michael Kugelman, a US-based foreign policy expert specialising in South Asia. Kugelman highlighted the extraordinary speed and unexpected nature of the ceasefire, noting that the escalation in tensions over the preceding days had brought the two nuclear-armed neighbours closer to the brink of war than at any time since the Kargil crisis.

The sudden agreement to halt hostilities came after a dramatic week marked by intense cross-border military actions, including airstrikes, drone attacks, and missile exchanges targeting military installations on both sides.

Kugelman emphasised that the ceasefire has significantly de-escalated the situation, pulling both countries back from the edge of a major conflict. However, he cautioned that the ceasefire remains fragile due to the persistently high level of distrust and unresolved tensions between India and Pakistan. This fragility was underscored by immediate accusations of ceasefire violations from both sides, even as the agreement was taking effect.

The expert also pointed out the critical role played by the United States and other international actors in brokering the truce. While the US initially maintained a hands-off approach, the rapid escalation-including alarming airstrikes and the targeting of sensitive sites near nuclear facilities-prompted urgent intervention by US officials.

Kugelman suggested that the risk of nuclear escalation was a major factor driving the US to push aggressively for a ceasefire, consistent with its historical pattern of crisis management in South Asia. US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were actively involved in communications with both Indian and Pakistani leaders, and their efforts, alongside those of other countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UK, and China, were instrumental in facilitating the agreement.

Despite the ceasefire, the situation remains tense. Indian officials have issued stern warnings that any violations will have consequences, especially as Operation Sindoor-India's military response to the Pahalgam terror attack-remains ongoing. The broader context of the conflict includes deep-seated grievances, ongoing militant activity, and mutual accusations of supporting cross-border terrorism, all of which contribute to the precariousness of the current peace.

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan was both sudden and significant, averting a potentially catastrophic escalation. However, the underlying issues remain unresolved, and the truce is widely seen as fragile, with the risk of renewed hostilities persisting as both nations continue to navigate a complex and volatile relationship.

ANI