India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has publicly questioned the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, advocating for its supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in light of what he described as Pakistan’s “irresponsible” behaviour and repeated nuclear threats. This call comes amid heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly following recent military confrontations and India’s Operation Sindoor against alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan.

However, the feasibility of the IAEA taking control or even monitoring Pakistan’s nuclear weapons is highly constrained by international law and existing treaties. The IAEA’s mandate is primarily to monitor the peaceful use of nuclear energy and ensure that civilian nuclear programs in member states are not diverted for military purposes.

This oversight is generally applied to countries that are signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and have agreed to place their nuclear activities under full-scope safeguards. Pakistan, however, is not a signatory to the NPT and has not accepted such safeguards for its military nuclear facilities. As a result, the IAEA currently has no legal authority to inspect or supervise Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal or related military activities without Pakistan’s explicit consent.

For the IAEA to gain such authority, either Pakistan would need to voluntarily agree to place its nuclear weapons under international supervision, or there would have to be a binding resolution from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) mandating such oversight. The latter scenario is extremely unlikely due to geopolitical realities.

Any UNSC resolution imposing controls or sanctions on Pakistan’s nuclear program would require the support of at least nine of the fifteen Council members and no vetoes from the five permanent members (China, Russia, the US, the UK, and France). Historically, China has been a strong ally of Pakistan and has used its veto power to shield Pakistan from international censure, as seen in other security-related matters. This makes the passage of any such resolution highly improbable.

Moreover, Pakistan’s situation differs from that of Iran or North Korea, both of which faced UNSC sanctions for violating their NPT commitments or international agreements. Since Pakistan is outside the NPT framework, it cannot be accused of breaching treaty obligations, further complicating any multilateral action.

While India’s call for IAEA supervision of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal highlights ongoing regional security concerns, the IAEA cannot unilaterally take control of or monitor Pakistan’s nuclear weapons under current international law. Any such move would require either Pakistan’s cooperation or an unlikely consensus at the UNSC, which is complicated by Pakistan’s diplomatic alliances and non-NPT status.

Agencies