Bangladesh confronts a precarious phase of escalating unrest, characterised by violent street riots that analysts term a "controlled breakdown." 

This turmoil, intensifying since mid-December 2025, stems directly from the death of Sharif Osman Hadi, a prominent youth leader and spokesperson for the Inqilab Moncho group, who succumbed to gunshot wounds on 18 December after an assassination attempt on 12 December.

Supporters of Hadi, identifying the assailants as members of the outlawed Chhatra League—the student wing of the ousted Awami League—have unleashed a wave of targeted violence. Mobs have attacked offices of major dailies such as Prothom Alo and The Daily Star, alongside cultural sites, Awami League properties, and even India's diplomatic missions in cities like Chittagong.

In Chittagong, protesters clashed fiercely with police while attempting to storm the Indian Assistant High Commission, underscoring a surge in anti-India sentiment. Residences of political figures, including those of the late former mayor Mohiuddin Chowdhury and ex-education minister Mohibul Hasan Chowdhury Naufel, fell victim to arson, amplifying the chaos.

The interim government under Muhammad Yunus has responded by deploying police and paramilitary forces across Dhaka and other urban centres, yet tensions persist amid fears of further escalation around Friday prayers and ahead of February elections. Demonstrators have blocked major roads, disrupted traffic, and chanted slogans accusing authorities of failing to safeguard uprising leaders from 2024.

Intelligence assessments warn that this erosion of law and order creates a deliberate vacuum, exploited by anti-India elements and Islamist factions to weaponize street power. Groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, sidelined under Sheikh Hasina's rule, now orchestrate protests, demanding India extradite Hasina—who fled to Delhi—and Hadi's killers.

Anti-India rhetoric dominates, with mobs raising "Boycott India" slogans and targeting symbols of secular history, such as premises linked to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. This shift aligns with reports of Pakistan's ISI reactivating Jamaat and LeT networks, funnelling funds and arms to destabilise the nation pre-elections.

Compounding the crisis, intelligence inputs reveal deep unrest within mid-level ranks of the Bangladesh Army, attributed to Islamist interference and the Yunus regime's political indecision. Top leadership maintains "static restraint" to avoid overt intervention, but this hesitation erodes institutional credibility and emboldens extremists.

The controlled breakdown manifests through manipulated media narratives and mobilised border populations, redirecting national focus towards confrontation with India. As riots empower these forces, regional security hangs in balance, with potential spill-over effects for neighbours amid Bangladesh's fragile transition.

Agencies