Pakistan-Bangladesh defence initiatives have sparked renewed apprehensions regarding India's two-front security challenges. Diplomatic and security sources reveal that Islamabad and Dhaka have established a joint mechanism comprising officials from their defence ministries, alongside representatives from the army, navy, and air force.

This body aims to formulate and assess a prospective defence pact, likened in ambition to Pakistan's longstanding defence cooperation with Saudi Arabia.

The proposed agreement encompasses military collaboration, intelligence exchange, joint exercises, and synchronised crisis responses. Discussions between the military hierarchies of Pakistan and Bangladesh have advanced to drafting a formal accord. Final approval is slated for review post-Bangladesh's general elections in February, enabling the incoming administration to endorse it.

Indian security experts view this development as a potential reconfiguration of South Asia's strategic landscape. It revives the spectre of dual-border pressures from Pakistan on the west and Bangladesh on the east. Although India routinely prepares for a two-front scenario involving Pakistan and China, an additional eastern axis would necessitate resource reallocation and heightened vigilance.

Historical precedents underscore the gravity of such alignments. India confronted simultaneous western and eastern threats during the 1948, 1965, and 1971 conflicts. The 1971 war birthed Bangladesh, ostensibly neutralising the eastern flank. A Pakistan-Bangladesh military entente would thus mark a profound reversal.

Comparative assessments affirm India's overwhelming superiority. The nation deploys 1.45 million active troops, dwarfing Pakistan's 6,50,000 and Bangladesh's 1,50,000. India dominates in aerial and naval assets, alongside defence expenditure. Yet, analysts stress that the peril lies not in numerical equilibrium, but in the logistical burden of multiple fronts.

Past episodes amplify these concerns. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Pakistani intelligence purportedly exploited Bangladeshi soil to aid insurgents in India's north-east. This involved logistics, transit pathways, and counterfeit papers. Fears persist that intensified military-intelligence ties could resurrect such activities.

Compounding regional tensions is Bangladesh's domestic turmoil. The assassination of extremist student leader Usman Hadi has ignited protests spearheaded by Inquilab Manch. The group lambasts Muhammad Yunus's interim regime for justice failures, chanting "no justice, no elections" and vowing to disrupt February polls absent accountability.

Usman Hadi's sibling, Masuma Hadi, has ascended as Inquilab Manch's prominent voice. She harbours electoral aspirations and voices staunch anti-India rhetoric, fuelling alarms over radicalism's ascent in Bangladeshi politics.

Under duress, the Yunus administration has escalated the murder probe to a Speedy Trial Tribunal, targeting resolution within 90 days of the police dossier. Authorities refute assertions that suspects escaped to India. Home Affairs Adviser Lt Gen Jahangir Alam Chowdhury (Retd) notes the prime accused, Faisal, remains at large, possibly domestically or abroad.

Suspicions deepen with claims that Faisal's prior bail involved Jamaat-e-Islami's student faction. This hints at entrenched political-ideological undercurrents in the slaying.

Bangladesh insists on an impartial inquiry. Nonetheless, persistent unrest intertwined with nascent Pakistan-Bangladesh defence dialogues stokes broader anxieties. For India, this nexus of Bangladeshi instability and cross-border military overtures portends enduring strategic ramifications, transcending mere diplomatic ripples.

India must recalibrate its eastern theatre postures, bolstering surveillance and rapid-response capacities along the 4,096-kilometre border. Enhanced intelligence fusion with regional allies could mitigate proxy threats. Concurrently, diplomatic overtures to stabilise Dhaka's polity remain imperative to forestall radical entrenchment.

The interplay of internal strife and external pacts in Bangladesh underscores South Asia's fragility. India's defence planners confront a tableau demanding agility amid evolving alignments.

Agencies