US President Donald Trump has announced that India has struck a deal to purchase Venezuelan oil, positioning it as a strategic shift away from Iranian supplies. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on 1 February 2026, Trump emphasised that the agreement underscores a broader US-led effort to redirect global oil flows.

"China is welcome to come in and make a great deal on oil," Trump stated. He reiterated that India is "coming in" to buy Venezuelan oil "as opposed to buying it from Iran." The US President described the arrangement as a "concept of the deal" already in place, signaling rapid diplomatic momentum.

This revelation comes amid heightened US engagement with Venezuela following the military operation that led to the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump praised the "great relationship" with Venezuela's interim government, noting that pressures have eased considerably since the leadership change.

Earlier, Trump disclosed that Venezuela offered the US 50 million barrels of oil—valued at USD 5.2 billion—for immediate processing due to storage constraints. "They said, we have 50 million barrels of oil, and we have to get it processed immediately because we have no room. Will you take it? I said, we'll take it," he recounted during remarks on the renaming of Southern Boulevard to Donald Trump Boulevard.

The US has already executed its first sale of Venezuelan oil, worth USD 500 million, as reported by New York-based outlet Semafor. Revenues from these transactions remain in US-controlled bank accounts, with a primary account reportedly in Qatar, according to administration officials.

Trump's comments affirm Washington's intention to exert significant influence over Venezuela during its transitional phase. Post-Maduro, he had previously declared that the US would "run" the country, demanding "total access to the oil and other things" as prerequisites for stability.

For India, this purported deal represents a pragmatic pivot in energy procurement. Historically reliant on diverse suppliers including Iran, New Delhi faces mounting pressures from US sanctions and global market volatility. Venezuelan crude, known for its heavy quality suited to Indian refineries, could fill a critical gap without escalating tensions with Tehran.

China's potential involvement adds a layer of great-power competition. Beijing, the world's largest oil importer, has long navigated US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran through alternative payment mechanisms. Trump's invitation may serve as both an olive branch and a strategic lure to dilute China's reliance on sanctioned sources.

The Indian government has yet to issue an official response, leaving room for speculation on the deal's final terms. Sources close to New Delhi's oil ministry indicate ongoing evaluations of Venezuelan cargoes, prioritising cost and compatibility with domestic refining infrastructure like Reliance Jamnagar or Indian Oil's Paradip facility.

This aligns with Trump's "America First" doctrine, repurposing Venezuelan oil to undermine rivals like Iran while bolstering allies such as India. It echoes past US efforts to isolate Tehran, including the 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA and subsequent "maximum pressure" campaign.

Venezuela's oil sector, once the jewel of OPEC, has deteriorated under sanctions and mismanagement, with production plummeting from over 3 million barrels per day in 2008 to under 1 million today. The interim government's overtures to the US signal a desperate bid for legitimacy and revenue.

US control over sales proceeds—held in escrow—ensures compliance and funds reconstruction, per administration briefings. Qatar's role as a financial hub underscores Gulf states' growing intermediation in sanctioned oil trades.

For global markets, increased Venezuelan supply could ease Brent crude prices, currently hovering above USD 80 per barrel amid Middle East tensions. India, importing over 85% of its oil needs, stands to benefit from discounted heavy sour grades that match its refining capabilities.

Critics, however, question the sustainability of US-orchestrated deals. Human rights groups highlight Venezuela's ongoing humanitarian crisis, while analysts warn of cartel influence in oil logistics. India's silence may reflect caution over entanglements in Washington's hemispheric adventures.

Trump's rhetoric also spotlights shifting alliances. India's "multi-alignment" strategy—balancing QUAD partnerships with Russian arms and Iranian oil—now incorporates Venezuelan supplies, potentially at US behest. This could strain ties with Tehran, a key Chabahar port partner.

Beijing's response remains unstated, but state media have downplayed Trump's overture. China holds significant Venezuelan debt and PDVSA stakes, complicating any pivot. A tripartite oil arrangement might stabilise prices but dilute US leverage over both nations.

As Budget 2026 deliberations intensify in New Delhi, energy security features prominently. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's capex push for refining and green hydrogen could integrate Venezuelan imports, aligning with Atmanirbhar Bharat's self-reliance ethos.

The deal's opacity invites scrutiny. No public memoranda confirm volumes, pricing, or timelines. Indian refiners like HPCL and BPCL have trialled Venezuelan grades before, suggesting logistical feasibility if sanctions are navigated.

Trump's announcement heralds a new chapter in oil geopolitics, with India at the vanguard of a US-Venezuela thaw. As details emerge, it will test New Delhi's diplomatic agility amid converging US, Chinese, and Iranian interests.

Based On ANI Report