India and the United States have concluded negotiations on a significant trade deal, with Russian oil imports emerging as a pivotal issue.

US President Donald Trump announced the agreement, claiming that Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to halt purchases of Russian oil entirely, redirecting imports towards the United States and potentially Venezuela. This move, according to Trump, aims to pressure Russia amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.

However, the Indian government has refrained from confirming any commitment to stop Russian oil imports outright. Official statements, including from Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, indicate that a joint statement detailing the deal's terms is forthcoming once technical processes are finalised. This reticence underscores a potential divergence in interpretations between Washington and New Delhi.

Lisa Curtis, a prominent foreign policy expert and Director at the Centre for New American Security, offered nuanced insights in an ANI interview. She noted that India has already reduced its Russian oil imports, particularly in December, but emphasised that Modi avoided echoing Trump's assertion of a complete halt. Curtis suggested differing expectations: Trump seeks a total cutoff by a specific timeline, while India may view its reductions as sufficient compliance.

Curtis highlighted Modi's strategic balancing act. India regards Russia as a longstanding historical partner and resists perceptions of yielding to US pressure. Nonetheless, she acknowledged the importance of accommodating Trump's consistent stance on this matter to bolster bilateral ties between the world's two largest democracies.

The trade deal's announcement follows months of tariff escalations. Trump imposed a 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian goods in April 2025, followed by an additional 25 per cent in August explicitly linked to Russian oil purchases, raising the total to 50 per cent. The US has now signalled a reduction to 18 per cent, contingent on India's cessation of Russian crude imports.

Factors accelerating the deal include the arrival of US Ambassador Sergio Gor in New Delhi on 9 January 2026 and India's recent free trade agreement with the European Union. These developments positioned India advantageously, prompting the US to expedite its own pact. Indian refiners, such as Bharat Petroleum Corporation, have begun sourcing alternatives, with facilities like Jamnagar halting Russian oil inflows.

Despite Trump's optimism, Indian refiners may require a transitional period to wind down Russian supplies without disrupting operations. Sources indicate a gradual reduction rather than an abrupt stop, reflecting logistical and economic realities. A complete halt could strain refineries optimised for Russian Urals crude.

Trump's Truth Social post framed the oil shift as a step towards ending the Ukraine war, citing weekly casualties. Yet, Indian responses, including Modi's, focused solely on tariff reductions to 18 per cent without referencing oil or geopolitics. This discrepancy fuels speculation of diplomatic ambiguity.

Broader US-India tensions, such as those post the India-Pakistan conflict, have occasionally strained relations, yet Curtis views the trade deal as a major relational boost. It alleviates tariff burdens, opens market access, and aligns with India's diversification of energy sources amid global pressures.

As details await the joint statement, the deal promises opportunities for Indian exporters while navigating energy security. Goyal expressed confidence that it will safeguard Indian interests and evoke national pride. Observers anticipate clarity on oil commitments soon, potentially reshaping India's import portfolio.

Based On ANI Report