Afghanistan: From Landlocked, Luck-Locked To An Important South Asian Influencer

by Shaumik Samar Ghosh
The contentious Durand Line which separates Afghanistan and Pakistan runs 2,640-kilometre, with the western end touching Iran and the eastern end to China.
Named after British diplomat Mortimer Durand, the line was drawn with an intent to measure the limit of the countries’ respective scope of influence and make a fair demarcation to facilitate diplomatic relations and trade.
Back then, Britain deemed Afghanistan as an autonomous state, but had control over its foreign affairs and diplomatic relations.
Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have cultural histories shaped by a number of civilizations from the east and also the west. Afghan culture and ethos comprise of Pashtun, Uzbek, Hazara, Uzbek, and other ethnic groups; whereas Pakistani culture has the Punjabi, Sindhi, Baloch & Pashtun traditions, rooted in Islamic practices.
In spite of being an independent state Afghanistan could never break out of the shackles of subordination until 2021, while Pakistan continues to remain caught in a vortex of quasi military dictatorship, indecisive politics and internal imbroglios.
The Afghan Jihad against former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was a time when both Afghanistan and Pakistan had good relations, even though the former had a pro-USSR and anti-Pakistan government in Kabul.
Then came the US led attack on Afghanistan and the prolonged presence of foreign occupation forces which saw friends become foes, and seems that the same is happening even now. Another reason of Pakistan getting irked is Afghanistan’s new found alliances in South Asia, especially India.
For a landlocked country, Afghanistan has been unfortunate in limitless regards. After September 11, 2001, in attacks on New York City and Washington that left thousands dead, the terrorists were Al-Qaeda members, a militant Islamist network that was believed to have been supported by Afghanistan’s de facto rulers.
The Taliban could not trace and handover the leaders of al-Qaeda, especially Osama Bin Laden who was later traced in Pakistan. The United States then invaded Afghanistan to support the Northern Alliance in overthrowing the Taliban and to dislodge Al-Qaeda, but maybe it was looking for the right people in the wrong place. This could have been a mere pretext to capture Afghanistan. The Taliban was removed from power and a new government was set up.
Peace was still a distant dream as the new Afghan government struggled to bring stability to the country. Fighting continued between the NATO powers the Taliban, and civilian casualties were high. In February 2009, while Barack Obama was US president, it hiked the presence of troops in Afghanistan.
In 2010 around 1,50,000 NATO troops were on the ground in Afghanistan, but the situation worsened as there were even higher casualties. This happened even in 1839, during the First Anglo-Afghan War, when British-led forces invaded Afghanistan and started a war with Afghan rulers, and two years later, the British were defeated.
The 1880 ‘Treaty of Gandamak’ did see Afghanistan giving control of various frontier areas to British ruled India, but it ended in a stalemate as a pro- British head could not be appointed in Kabul. After more than a decade Mortimer Durand was sent to Kabul to sign an agreement with the then supreme leader Amir Abdur Rahman Khan as an agreement of borders were mandatory for many reasons and the most important one was to keep the country afar from communist influence.
The political identity of Afghanistan has always been manipulated through indirect and clandestine formulations. This particular conflict of interest between the people of Afghanistan and foreign installed Afghan governments is the cause of mass resentment leading to armed resistance, a resistance that is always prepared for the worst.
Many who don’t want to live under clouds of mayhem and uncertainty are convinced by certain groups to move to Pakistan in the form of inflow of unarmed refugees, which also encourages drug and human trafficking. In recent times, the Afghan government has not accepted a number of border management proposals from Pakistan.
Bitten million times and shy a billion, Afghanistan continues to deal with serious distrust, blame games, a refugee crisis and cross border violations that is a result of centuries of tug of war. The international interest in Afghanistan stems from the fact that it is the inevitable ‘Boxing Ring of Asia” which is not just strategically, but also psychologically, culturally, geographically and politically the quintessential underdog who has been always carrying the bone with it.
With the world order headed towards multi-polarity, Afghanistan may face many more challenges because it was left behind when rest of the world was moving at a fast pace. For the country to grow it must to open to different philosophies, policies and sustainable trade models.
As it has seen with Pakistan that even though both practice the same religion—majorly the Sunni version or Deobandi form of Islam, it still won’t be enough to emerge as a robust independent power.
With rising trade tensions amongst major economies, not to forget the US- Iran War, South Asia remains at the centre of routing, sending and receiving problems, Afghanistan can play an important catalyst in the emerging new world order.
While China wants Afghanistan to join the former’s ambitious CPEC corridor program, it could be yet another cause of worry for Afghans as they may once more end up as proxy void of any equal say.
But it proved it can as many reports suggest that it is reducing its dependence on Pakistani corridors for access to other markets, and has been using more of the Chabahar port—a positive augmentation of its trade doctrine, backed by India.
At a diplomatic level, Afghanistan is evolving and experimenting with forging new relations. This becomes even more important for a country that does not have an Independence Day - as it was always a free nation on paper, but freedom eluded it for way too long.
Shaumik Samar Ghosh is a writer and keen political and geopolitical analyst
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