NDTV’s Gaurie Dwivedi, reporting in the India Ascends series, emphasised how India’s economic resilience is being recognised globally even as it tactically leverages regional treaties to strengthen its strategic position.

The juxtaposition of India’s growth story with Pakistan’s brewing crisis underscores the shifting balance in South Asia’s economic and geopolitical landscape.

India’s economy has been singled out by the IMF as a rare bright spot amid a global slowdown and the ongoing Gulf war, with growth projected at a resilient 6.5%. At the same time, India is leveraging the Indus Water Treaty to exert pressure on Pakistan, where a deepening water and energy crisis is brewing.

The International Monetary Fund has reaffirmed India’s position as the fastest-growing major economy, projecting growth to hold steady at 6.5% through FY27 despite escalating geopolitical tensions and energy market disruptions.

This resilience is attributed to strong macroeconomic fundamentals, policy credibility, and momentum from FY26. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted India’s ability to withstand shocks even as global growth moderates due to the ongoing US–Iran conflict.

India’s growth forecast was upgraded from 6.4% to 6.5% in the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, making it one of the few large economies to receive an upward revision. The report, titled Global Economy in the Shadow of War, underscores India’s resilience in contrast to a global growth outlook cut to 3.1% for 2026, with inflation and energy prices expected to rise.

While India’s economic trajectory remains strong, the episode also highlights its strategic use of the Indus Water Treaty as leverage against Pakistan. The treaty, signed in 1960, governs water-sharing arrangements between the two countries.

India’s recalibration of its stance has coincided with Pakistan’s mounting challenges in water management and energy supply. Pakistan is facing a worsening water and energy crisis, exacerbated by climate stress, poor infrastructure, and rising demand. This crisis has significant implications for Pakistan’s domestic stability and its ability to sustain economic growth.

NDTV