India’s naval aviation faces a critical transitional decade: while 26 Rafale-Ms are already on order, New Delhi has now formally approached France for 31 more, potentially raising the fleet to 57 aircraft.

This expansion comes as the MiG-29K’s service life has been extended to 2040, bridging the gap until the indigenous TEDBF enters production around 2038.

India ordered 22 single-seat Rafale-Ms and 4 two-seat Rafale-B jets in April 2025 for €7.4 billion to equip INS Vikrant. Deliveries are scheduled between 2029 and 2031. These aircraft will primarily operate from INS Vikrant, whose deck and lift dimensions are compatible with the French fighter.

INS Vikramaditya, however, faces constraints due to its Russian-origin design, making the MiG-29K indispensable aboard that carrier despite its well-documented deficiencies.

Between 2004 and 2010, India acquired 37 MiG-29Ks and 8 MiG-29KUBs for $2.29 billion. Around 40 remain in service after several losses, including at least five accidents in four years.

The Comptroller and Auditor General highlighted recurring issues with engines, airframes, and flight controls, resulting in poor availability rates. Each lost aircraft reduces the Navy’s margin for sustaining carrier air wings, making the Rafale-M induction vital.

The MiG-29K’s retirement, initially set for 2035, has now been extended to 2040. This extension is necessary because the Twin-Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF), India’s indigenous carrier-borne fighter, has slipped in schedule. Its first flight is now expected around 2032, with serial production unlikely before 2038. Even then, the TEDBF will require years of testing, naval qualification, and ramp-up before fully replacing the Russian aircraft.

India’s request for 31 additional Rafale-Ms, if approved, would bring the total fleet to 57 aircraft. This aligns with the Navy’s original requirement for Multi-Role Carrier-Borne Fighters to sustain operations across multiple carriers.

The expanded fleet would provide operational deployment, training, attrition reserves, and maintenance cycles, ensuring continuous availability. If completed, India would surpass France, which operates about 41 Rafale-Ms, becoming the largest operator of the naval variant globally.

The Rafale-M offers advanced capabilities compared to the MiG-29K. It is equipped with the RBE2 AESA radar, Meteor beyond-visual-range missiles, and SCALP cruise missiles, providing superior detection, strike, and survivability.

Structural adaptations such as reinforced landing gear, arrestor hooks, and strengthened airframes make it well-suited for carrier operations. These features will significantly enhance India’s maritime strike and air defence capabilities in the Indian Ocean Region.

The expansion also ties into long-term planning for India’s second indigenous carrier, INS Vishal. Aligning aircraft procurement with carrier construction schedules ensures operational squadrons are available upon commissioning.

This strategy reflects India’s intent to maintain a “force-in-being” posture, with dedicated squadrons for each carrier while preserving training and overhaul capacity.

India’s aerospace industry, meanwhile, is stretched with multiple parallel projects: the MRFA for the Air Force, TEJAS MK-2, AMCA, and TEDBF. Balancing resources across these programs remains a challenge. The TEDBF, positioned between fourth and fifth-generation designs, is central to India’s self-reliance ambitions but risks delays due to funding and design complexities.

France’s own naval aviation developments, including the SCAF program, also reshape opportunities for India. Collaboration with Dassault Aviation deepens strategic ties, while India’s potential role as the largest Rafale-M operator underscores its growing importance in Indo-Pacific maritime security.

Agencies