Strategic Leverage Over Capital Gains: Why Tokyo Must Dictate Terms in New Delhi’s Nuclear Market

India intends to build one of the world’s largest nuclear fleets, creating a market worth tens of billions of dollars.
Yet for 15 years, a single provision in Indian law helped keep Japanese firms on the sidelines. Last December, that provision was removed, placing the prize within reach. However, the question confronting Tokyo is harder than the pure economics make it sound, wrote Gaurav Kumar of Japan Times.
Should Japan, of all countries, help build nuclear reactors abroad under rules that leave suppliers bearing significantly less responsibility if something goes catastrophically wrong? Should it move quickly before competitors lock up the market, or should it hold back on principle? There is a third possibility: Japan could enter the market, but strictly on its own terms.
The opening came through the passage of the Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India Act, known as the SHANTI Act. For six decades, only the Indian government had the authority to build and operate nuclear plants.
Under the new legislation, private Indian companies can do so as well, while foreign companies, including Japanese manufacturers, can supply reactor technology.
The complication lies in the legal fine print. Under India’s previous legislation, the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act of 2010, a nuclear plant operator could seek financial compensation from a foreign supplier if a reactor accident occurred. Equipment makers argued that this exposed them to unpredictable legal liabilities, causing Japanese companies such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Hitachi to treat the provision as a deal breaker.
India has now substantially reduced that obstacle by removing supplier liability and channelling risk exclusively to operators. Put plainly, Japanese companies being invited back are entering a market where they face far less financial exposure should a reactor fail.
No country is likely to hear that offer quite the way Japan does. It remains the only nation to have suffered atomic bombings, at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, and is one of the very few advanced democracies to have endured a major nuclear power plant disaster, at Fukushima in 2011.
When Japan signed a bilateral civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India in 2016, the decision was already politically fraught because India had never joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Japan’s Parliament approved the agreement only after Tokyo secured a written understanding allowing it to terminate all cooperation if India conducted another nuclear weapons test.
For Tokyo, a reactor sale has never been merely a commercial transaction. Even so, the pressure to participate is mounting. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in New Delhi in early July 2026, the two leaders framed energy security as a central pillar of their strategic partnership and pledged greater joint cooperation on nuclear and clean energy. The door is open, and India is eager for Japan to walk through it.
To understand what is at stake, it helps to remember why India imposed its unusual liability rules in the first place. In 1984, a industrial gas leak at a pesticide plant in Bhopal killed thousands of citizens and left survivors fighting for adequate financial relief for decades.
That industrial catastrophe left India deeply suspicious of legal frameworks that allowed foreign corporations to escape responsibility for severe industrial accidents.
That history directly shaped India’s 2010 nuclear liability law, which departed from global conventions by allowing operators to recover damages from vendors. Foreign equipment makers balked at the potential financial exposure and stayed away. The SHANTI Act was designed to end that standoff by strictly limiting supplier liability.
However, consider the scale of that protection. The new framework caps total statutory liability for a single nuclear incident at 300 million Special Drawing Rights, which converts to approximately ₹3,900 crore.
Japan understands how quickly that figure can become meaningless during a crisis. The total long-term cost of decommissioning, environmental decontamination, and financial compensation associated with the Fukushima disaster is projected to run into hundreds of billions of dollars, or hundreds of lakhs of crores of Rupees.
Measured against the potential damage of a catastrophic nuclear failure, ₹3,900 crore looks less like a true safety net than a tiny fraction of the ultimate bill. That gap is not a technical footnote; it goes directly to the heart of the risk India is asking its citizens and future generations to bear.
India, meanwhile, is moving rapidly. Russia’s state-owned ROSATOM, which is constructing reactors at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in southern India, is looking to expand its footprint. France’s EDF is actively pursuing the massive Jaitapur project on India’s west coast, which is planned to become one of the largest nuclear power stations on Earth.
India has set a firm national goal of achieving 100 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity by 2047, up from roughly eight gigawatts today. Domestic development programs for indigenous small modular reactors are not expected to deliver operational units before 2033, creating a crucial decade-long window during which foreign equipment vendors could lock in major early contracts.
In a commercial race of this scale, waiting is itself a strategic choice. However, Japan should not confuse urgency with powerlessness.
Japan’s painful nuclear history is usually cited as a clear reason for caution, but it may actually be Japan’s strongest qualification and its greatest source of leverage. While other foreign suppliers can compete on price, state financing, and speed, Japan can compete on something far harder to measure: absolute trust.
The rigorous safety culture Japan rebuilt after Fukushima, shaped by some of the harshest operational lessons any nuclear nation has absorbed, represents precisely the institutional experience India requires as private Start-Up enterprises and corporate groups enter a sector long dominated by the state.
Japan does not have to enter the Indian market simply as another vendor accepting whatever liability terms are offered. It can make its industrial participation strictly contingent on higher standards, including mandatory insurance coverage, fully independent nuclear regulation, rigorous emergency planning, and total public disclosure to communities residing near these plants. Tokyo can press this case right now, while India’s new nuclear regulatory order is still taking shape.
India’s Supreme Court is currently reviewing legal challenges arguing that the new liability caps violate the fundamental constitutional right to life, while domestic opposition politicians have criticized the legislation as a retreat from safeguards created in the shadow of Bhopal. That internal legal unease should not deter Japan; it gives Tokyo additional leverage to insist on safety guarantees that its own history has proven essential.
India’s nuclear market is opening at a moment when its operational rules are still being actively written. Japan can enter simply as another commercial vendor competing on reactor technology, financing rates, and price. Or it can use its industrial participation to demand higher safety standards, enhanced transparency, and meaningful protections for local communities. That remains the most consequential choice facing Tokyo today.
Japan has experienced the tragic consequences of nuclear disaster in a way few nations ever have. The historical lesson need not be that Japan should retreat from civilian nuclear power abroad, but rather that it must refuse to participate without demanding something fundamentally better. Its greatest potential contribution to India’s clean energy drive may not be the reactors it helps assemble, but the rigorous safety standards under which they are built.
Agencies
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