A Russian Su-30 buzzes past the Dutch frigate HNLMS 'Evertsen'

Since last week, two rival fleets—one each belonging to Russia and NATO—have taken turns pretending to sink each other in the crowded waters of the Mediterranean and Black Seas

Russian bombers, reinforced by fighters packing hypersonic missiles, staged at least one mock attack run on a British aircraft carrier while other Russian planes buzzed the flattop’s escorts.

The British carrier’s stealth fighters returned the favour when at least one of the radar-evading jets circled a Russian warship.

Forces began streaming into the Med and the adjacent Black Sea a couple weeks ago. In late May, the United Kingdom’s new flattop HMS Queen Elizabeth led her strike group—two destroyers, two frigates, two supply ships and a nuclear submarine from the Royal Navy plus a Dutch frigate and an American destroyer—into the Med.

Three weeks later some of Queen Elizabeth’s stealth fighters—she embarks 18 British and American F-35Bs—struck militants in Syria.

Meanwhile the destroyer HMS Defender and the Dutch frigate HNLMS Evertsen detached from the carrier group and sailed into the Black Sea, where NATO has organized a war game with Ukrainian forces. Exercise Sea Breeze involves 32 warships, 40 aircraft and thousands of personnel from 32 NATO and partner countries.

The Kremlin organized a competing war game involving five warships—the cruiser Moskva plus two frigates and a pair of diesel-electric submarines—as well as bombers and fighters staging from Khmeimim air base in Syria. Six other Russian warships—support vessels, mostly—also are in the Med.

The two forces prodded each other. Tu-22M bombers armed with Kh-22 anti-ship missiles and MiG-31K fighters carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles practiced an attack run on Queen Elizabeth as Su-35 and Su-34 fighters flew cover. The practice raid ended with a simulated Kinzhal launch on or before Monday.

The Mach-10 Kinzhal is one of the world’s first operational hypersonic weapons. It’s unclear how effective the bulky munition might be against fast-moving ships. But Sergei Surovikin, commander-in-chief of the Russian air force, said he was confident. "The use of an all-weather seeker in the final phase of a hypersonic flight ensures the required accuracy and selectivity of hitting targets at any time of the day," Surovikin said.

In any event, the Kinzhal and Kh-22 with their different flight profiles and sensors could make for a deadly combination. “It would make sense to have them [the Tu-22Ms and MiG-31Ks] train together to target carriers or carrier groups,” said Rob Lee, an analyst and doctoral student in the War Studies Department at King's College London.

While Russia’s Syria-based warplanes ran at Queen Elizabeth in the eastern Med, Russian planes apparently operating from Crimea or nearby bases buzzed Defender and Eversten as the NATO surface ships skirted the Black Sea coast.

On Wednesday, Su-24s flew low over Defender as the destroyer sailed in international waters near Crimea. The next day, 10 or so Su-24s and Su-30s—at least one of the latter carrying a Kh-31 anti-ship missile—buzzed Evertsen ... for hours. Russian forces reportedly also tried to jam the frigate’s sensors.

The Dutch were outraged. “Eversten sailed on the open sea in international waters,” said the frigate’s skipper, George Pastoor. “There was no reason whatsoever for these aggressive actions.”

Queen Elizabeth’s air wing returned the favor, albeit with less fury. At least one F-35—others were busy exercising over Israel—buzzed the main Russian fleet on or before Monday. A Russian sailor posted a video of the stealth fighter looping around one of the fleet’s frigates, possibly Admiral Makarov.

The F-35 is not a natural ship-killer. The stealth fighter in U.S. and British service lacks a dedicated anti-ship missile. Which is not to say the type can’t sink a Russian frigate, if it came to that. A GPS-guided glide bomb will punch a hole in a hull as reliably as a missile will.

If these mutual provocations feel like something from the 1980s—you’re not wrong. Tensions are on the rise as Russia and NATO both bolster their southern flanks. “Russia wants to demonstrate that it is the dominating power in the Black Sea and ready to use force against its adversaries,” said Pavel Luzin, an independent expert on the Russian military.

But overly aggressive posturing raises the risk of an accident, Dutch defence minister Ank Bijleveld-Schouten warned. “The Netherlands will address Russia about this,” she said of the recent incident.