New Delhi has maintained close connections with Manila, as seen by a recent contract to deliver three batteries of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines to oppose China's influence in the South China Sea

Over the last few months, the Philippines and China have engaged in many dangerous encounters near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains a troop detachment stationed on a grounded military vessel.

By 2024, the South China Sea could be a larger hotspot than Taiwan, with key countries interested in checking China’s operations in the region.

Both China and the Philippines have recorded incidents and shared their viewpoints with the world, highlighting what they see as unjustified infringements on their sovereign rights. China claims that the Philippines has breached its historical nine-dash line claim by involving extra-regional parties in the region, perhaps resulting in war.

In contrast, the Philippines, supported by a 2016 arbitral tribunal decision outlining its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea and invalidating China’s historical claim, has produced proof of unsafe manoeuvres by the Chinese Coast Guard and operations against Philippine civilian vessels.

Apart from these bilateral encounters, India is pitching its ground without much limelight in the region with the help of arm-related pacts with the Philippines in particular. According to media reports, Indian defence companies like Kalyani Strategic Systems, Larsen & Toubro and Hindustan Aeronautics are interested in selling their military platforms to the Philippines.

“Nigeria, the Philippines and Egypt are interested in acquiring Tejas Light Combat aircraft,” HAL chairman CB Ananthakrishnan was reported as stating.

According to a recent report, Officials from the Philippines have visited several Indian defence companies to assess their offerings. The discussions are still in the early stages, however, officials have indicated that deals could be signed in the second half of 2024.

India and the Philippines share an interest in the Indo-Pacific, which they see as free, open and inclusive. New Delhi has maintained close connections with Manila, as seen by a recent contract to deliver three batteries of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines to oppose China's influence in the South China Sea.

However, India is wary of engaging in direct manoeuvres against China in the South China Sea, acknowledging China's superior position with control over several of the region's islands.

Furthermore, India's principal priority is on retaining its presence and supremacy in the Indian Ocean Region rather than intervening in Southeast Asian affairs. India aspires to promote economic progress while maintaining the security and stability of its borders.

As a proud non-aligned member of BRICS and a participant in the US-led "Quad," India continues to support the Philippines while refraining from direct intervention in the continuing issues.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a significant bilateral meeting with then-Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in 2018, covering all aspects of the relationship. This meeting resulted in the signing of five Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) on Defense Industry and Logistics Cooperation, Agriculture Cooperation, a collaboration between the Indian Council of World Affairs and the Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute, cooperation on micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME) and a partnership between the Indian Council for Cultural Relations and the University of the Philippines to establish a chair of India studies.

In 2020, Modi reaffirmed the importance of the Philippines in India’s Act East Policy and its Indo-Pacific Vision, emphasising the need to expand bilateral relations.

A potential visit by India’s prime minister to Manila could instil confidence in the Philippines regarding Indian ties, particularly considering the recent absence of such visits. Modi has visited the Philippines just once since he assumed office in 2014, a trip centred on attending the ASEAN-India and East Asia Summits in November 2017. Such a visit could also serve as a diplomatic message to Beijing, urging a cessation of China’s bullying tactics against the Philippines and the respect of sovereignty.

Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s meeting with Philippines Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo in New Delhi in June 2023 further strengthened bilateral defence cooperation, encompassing a concessional Line of Credit to meet the Philippines’ defence requirements, joint exercises on maritime security, expansion of training, cooperation on disaster response, and the acquisition of naval assets. The diplomats also expressed interest in expanding collaboration into emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and space.

When it comes to the maritime disputes, India should continue to play second fiddle, supporting the Philippines in the South China Sea, but focusing on assisting the Philippines in mainland areas through investments in critical infrastructure. In addition, India can enhance maritime trade with the Quad nations and establish an extensive information network to aid the United States in formulating long-term strategies.