India is on the brink of finalising a significant defence deal for 26 Rafale Marine jets for the Navy, with negotiations nearing completion despite substantial cost concerns. Simultaneously, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is reportedly considering the acquisition of 40 additional Rafale jets to address its depleting combat strength. This comprehensive military procurement strategy highlights India's prioritisation of operational capabilities over budgetary constraints, driven by pressing security considerations in an increasingly complex regional security environment.

The Indian government is in advanced negotiations to purchase 26 Rafale Marine jets worth over ₹63,000 crore from France in a government-to-government deal. This acquisition comes as the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has already approved the procurement on April 9, 2025. The deal is expected to be signed later this month during French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu's visit to India. Concurrently, the Indian Air Force is reportedly interested in acquiring 40 more Rafale jets to bolster its combat fleet, which has diminished to just 31 squadrons – the lowest since 1965.

The urgency of these acquisitions stems from critical operational gaps in both naval and air defence capabilities. For the Navy, the Rafale Marine jets will replace the ageing Russian-origin MiG-29K fighters currently deployed on India's aircraft carriers. The IAF, meanwhile, faces a significant shortfall in its authorised strength of 42 squadrons, necessitating rapid fleet expansion to maintain air superiority in the region.

Naval Acquisition: Specifications And Strategic Importance

The naval deal includes 22 single-seater and four twin-seater Rafale Marine jets, along with comprehensive packages for maintenance, training, and logistical support. These aircraft will be deployed on India's two aircraft carriers – INS Vikramaditya and the indigenous INS Vikrant – significantly enhancing the Navy's maritime strike capabilities. The Rafale Marine, considered among the world's most advanced carrier-borne fighters, prevailed over the US-made Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet after extensive trials and evaluations.

This acquisition is particularly significant as it represents a stop-gap arrangement until India's indigenous Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF) becomes operational. The TEDBF project, spearheaded by the Aeronautical Development Agency of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is expected to have its first prototype ready by 2027-28, highlighting the interim nature of the Rafale Marine procurement.

Cost Concerns And Pricing Controversies

Despite the clear operational needs, the high cost of these acquisitions has raised significant concerns among military planners and analysts. The 2016 deal for 36 Rafale jets for the IAF, worth approximately ₹59,000 crore, had already attracted criticism for its high price tag. The current deal for 26 Rafale Marine jets, valued at over ₹63,000 crore, represents an even higher per-unit cost.

Reports suggest that the French manufacturer may be offering the Rafale Marine jets at double the price paid by the IAF in 2016. The IAF's purchase in 2016 was at a reported base price of $84 million per aircraft, with the total contract value reaching $9.4 billion due to additional costs like spares, simulators, and training. In contrast, the base price for the Indian Navy's Rafale Marine jets is estimated at $300 million per aircraft, a stark increase that has raised eyebrows among defence analysts.

Potential Cost Mitigation Strategies

Despite the high initial costs, experts suggest that India could achieve significant savings through operational synergies. Since the IAF already operates Rafale jets and the Rafale Marine shares over 80% similar components, the Indian Navy's deal could bring commonalities in training and maintenance infrastructure. By adopting a model similar to France, where the navy and air force share maintenance and storage facilities, India could potentially reduce the overall operational costs.

With proper resource sharing and infrastructure optimisation, some experts argue that the effective cost could be brought down to around $115 million per jet, substantially less than the initial base price estimate. However, the final outcome of the negotiations and the actual contract value will have significant implications for India's defence budget in the coming years.

Strategic Implications And Indigenous Development

The Rafale acquisitions must be viewed within the broader context of India's defence strategy and its push for greater self-reliance in defence manufacturing. Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of Rafale, has indicated willingness to establish an assembly line in India if the company secures a substantially large purchase order. This proposal aligns with India's push for greater indigenisation in defence manufacturing and could strengthen the strategic partnership with France.

However, during the Rafale Marine negotiations, the French side reportedly convinced the Indian Navy to use Rafale's own radars and sensors instead of those designed and developed by DRDO, as initially planned. Some military planners view this as a setback for the Make in India program, highlighting the tensions between immediate operational requirements and long-term self-reliance goals.

Benchmark Pricing And Historical Context

The pricing controversies surrounding Rafale acquisitions are not new. During the 2016 deal, there were extensive debates within the negotiating team about the appropriate benchmarking price. Initially, the defence ministry estimated a benchmark price of €5.2 billion, which was later revised upwards to €8.2 billion. This revision was necessary to align with the price discovered during the earlier bidding for 126 fighter aircraft during the UPA regime.

The methodology to calculate the benchmark cost involved comparing the price of the old deal with the new one being negotiated, essentially using an 'aligned cost table' based on Dassault's offer for the earlier contract. This historical context is relevant for understanding the current pricing dynamics in the naval Rafale deal.

Air Force's Interest In Additional Rafales

While no senior IAF official has officially confirmed the plan, there are strong indications that the air force is interested in procuring 40 additional Rafale jets. This interest is partly related to France's expressed interest in the IAF's programme to acquire 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA). For Dassault, securing a larger order would make it economically viable to establish an assembly line in India, potentially leading to cost savings in the long run.

The IAF's interest in additional Rafales is driven by its declining combat strength and the need to replace ageing aircraft. With just 31 squadrons currently operational – well below the authorized strength of 42 – the IAF faces a critical capability gap that needs urgent addressing. The additional Rafales could help bridge this gap while indigenous programs like the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mark-1A and Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) continue their development.

Conclusion: Balancing Need And Affordability

India's aggressive pursuit of Rafale jets despite their high cost underscores the country's prioritisation of operational capability over budgetary constraints. As the deal for 26 Rafale Marine jets nears finalisation and the IAF considers additional acquisitions, the balance between meeting immediate security needs and achieving financial sustainability remains challenging.

The success of these acquisitions will ultimately be judged not just by their immediate impact on India's military capabilities but also by how effectively they contribute to the broader goals of strengthening India's domestic defence industrial base. The high costs involved may be justified if these acquisitions lead to meaningful technology transfer, industrial cooperation, and eventually greater self-reliance in defence production.

As India continues to navigate these complex procurement decisions, the overriding principle appears to be that when it comes to critical defence capabilities, operational necessity often trumps cost considerations – a stance that reflects India's assessment of its security environment and long-term strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific region.

IDN