India appears to be methodically laying the groundwork for a potential military strike against Pakistan in response to the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack that claimed the lives of over 20 civilians, mostly tourists.

Following established patterns from previous cross-border strikes after the Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019) attacks, India is engaged in comprehensive diplomatic outreach, domestic consensus building, gathering evidence linking Pakistan to the attack, and military preparations. Pakistan's Defence Minister has already stated that an Indian military incursion is "imminent," indicating heightened tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

The groundwork being undertaken by India suggests that a military response may be forthcoming, though the timing remains strategically flexible as the government evaluates maximum impact with minimum risk.

Diplomatic Groundwork: India's International Outreach

A cornerstone of India's preparation for potential military action has been extensive diplomatic outreach. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has briefed envoys from approximately 25 countries, including G20 nations and Gulf countries, about the cross-border linkages of the perpetrators and India's zero-tolerance policy toward terrorism. This briefing occurred shortly after Prime Minister Modi's public statement about pursuing the attackers "to the ends of the Earth".

The Ministry of External Affairs has continued intensive diplomatic efforts, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar engaging with multiple foreign counterparts. Notably, Jaishankar spoke with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud to brief him about the cross-border linkages of the Pahalgam attack. Support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be crucial should the conflict with Pakistan escalate. The Saudi Foreign Minister reportedly also spoke with his Pakistani counterpart about the situation with India after the attack.

The international response has been largely supportive, with India receiving solidarity messages from over 130 countries. High-profile calls of support have come from U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and the leaders of Denmark and the Netherlands. This broad international support is crucial as India builds its case against Pakistan.

Political Groundwork: Building Domestic Consensus

An all-party meeting was convened under the chairmanship of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to brief political leaders about the attack and discuss the path forward. This meeting, a standard procedure following major security incidents, resulted in a strong show of unity across the political spectrum. All attending parties strongly condemned the attack and observed a two-minute silence for the victims before commencing discussions.

In a notable development showing the government's efforts to foster complete political unity, Home Minister Amit Shah personally invited All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) Chief Asaduddin Owaisi to attend the all-party meeting after Owaisi had expressed concerns about exclusion. Owaisi emphasised that terrorism is a national-not political-issue demanding unity.

Intelligence And Investigative Groundwork

Though Pakistan's role in sponsoring terrorism in India is well-documented, India needs specific evidence linking Pakistan to the Pahalgam attack to justify military action to the international community. Security agencies have released photographs and identities of the suspected terrorists involved, facilitated by numerous tourist videos that captured the attackers in action.

Investigations have identified fifteen local Kashmiri over ground workers (OGWs) and terror aides based on electronic surveillance. These individuals are believed to have facilitated the Pakistani assailants by arranging logistics and possibly receiving arms shipments from Pakistan.

A particularly damning piece of evidence is the identification of Hashim Musa, one of the Pakistani terrorists behind the massacre, as a former para commando of Pakistan Army's Special Forces. Sources report that Musa, now working with the Pakistan-based terrorist organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), was specifically sent to Kashmir to attack non-locals and security forces.

Military Preparations And Strategic Considerations

Prime Minister Modi, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, and other senior officials have held numerous meetings with military leadership since the attack. These consultations are critical for planning any potential military response, assessing risks, and determining the optimal timing and nature of the operation.

Pakistan has already begun reinforcing its military positions. Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif told Reuters, "We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now. So in that situation some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken". This statement confirms that Pakistan anticipates an Indian military strike and is making preparations accordingly.

Historical Context: Patterns From Previous Responses

India's approach to the Pahalgam attack shows clear parallels to its responses to previous major terror incidents. After the Uri attack in 2016, India conducted surgical strikes across the Line of Control approximately 10 days after the incident. Similarly, following the Pulwama attack in 2019, the Balakot airstrikes were conducted after about 11 days.

The current situation follows a similar timeline and pattern of escalation. Like previous incidents, the response has included cutting short international commitments, convening security meetings, launching investigations, briefing foreign envoys, and building domestic political consensus. In both the Uri and Pulwama cases, India's military response came after methodical preparation and at a time of its choosing. The current groundwork being laid suggests a similar approach is being taken now, though the specific timing and nature of any military action remain undetermined.

International Positioning And Media Narrative

The New York Times, a publication which is perceived to be inimical to India's national interests, has characterised India's international outreach not as an effort to de-escalate tensions but rather as building a case for military action against Pakistan. According to diplomatic officials cited by the newspaper, "New Delhi appears to be building a case for military action against its neighbour and archenemy".

India's briefings to foreign envoys have emphasised the severity of the attack, comparing it to the 2008 Mumbai attacks and underscoring India's determination to bring the perpetrators to justice. This messaging serves to prepare the international community for potential military action while attempting to minimise diplomatic backlash.

The firm criticism of the attack from Gulf Cooperation Council countries and their willingness to publicly stand by India represents a significant diplomatic achievement. This shift in support from Arab nations, traditionally more aligned with Pakistan, could have important implications for the regional power balance and Pakistan's international standing.

The Path Forward

Nearly two weeks have elapsed since the Pahalgam terror attack, placing the current timeline within the typical response window based on previous patterns. However, despite public expectations and Pakistan's apparent anticipation of an imminent strike, the Indian government and military will likely act only at what they determine to be the opportune moment-balancing maximum impact against minimum risk.

The groundwork for military action appears nearly complete: evidence linking Pakistan to the attack has been gathered, the international community has been extensively briefed, and domestic political unity has been secured. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has stated that India's military is ready for action. The primary remaining question is not if India will respond militarily, but when and how.

As tensions continue to mount between the nuclear-armed neighbours, the coming days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can prevail or if the region will witness another military confrontation. Whatever action India ultimately takes will have significant implications for regional stability, international relations, and the ongoing India-Pakistan conflict.

IDN (Based on Agency Inputs)