The relationship between the United States and India has entered a period of heightened tension, primarily due to India’s continued strategic and economic engagement with Russia. The latest flashpoint is a proposed US Senate bill, spearheaded by Senator Lindsey Graham, which seeks to impose a punitive 500% tariff on imports from countries—most notably India and China—that continue to purchase Russian oil and other commodities.

This legislation, described as “bone-breaking sanctions,” has garnered significant bipartisan support, with 84 co-sponsors in the 100-member Senate, making it potentially veto-proof even if President Donald Trump were to oppose it.

India’s Response And Strategic Calculus

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has publicly acknowledged the seriousness of the proposed US action, emphasising that India is closely monitoring developments in the US Congress and has communicated its concerns and interests, particularly regarding energy security, to American lawmakers. Jaishankar’s stance is pragmatic: India will “cross that bridge when we come to it,” signalling a wait-and-watch approach while reaffirming India’s right to secure energy at the most competitive prices.

India’s reliance on Russian oil has grown dramatically since the onset of the Ukraine war, with Russian crude now accounting for over 40% of India’s total oil imports. This shift was largely driven by Western sanctions on Moscow, which redirected Russian oil exports from Europe to Asia, making India and China the primary buyers. Despite mounting Western pressure, India has maintained that its energy policy is dictated by national interest and market conditions, not external dictates.

Historical Context And Patterns of US Pressure

This is not the first instance of the US threatening India with economic penalties over its ties with Russia. During President Trump’s previous term, India faced the prospect of sanctions for its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system. However, India managed to navigate those challenges, leveraging its status as a major market for US goods and services to avoid punitive measures.

Perceptions of US Reliability And Strategic Trust

The current standoff has reignited debates within India about the reliability of the US as a strategic partner. Former Indian Navy officer Commodore Seshadri Vasan and other commentators have argued that repeated threats and delays—such as the over two-year holdup in the delivery of GE-F404 engines for India’s Tejas fighter jets—undermine trust and could push India to deepen ties with other partners, including Russia. The delay in engine deliveries has not only hampered India’s defence modernisation but also raised questions about the US’s commitment to India’s security needs.

Economic And Diplomatic Implications

Should the US proceed with the 500% tariff, the economic consequences could be severe for both countries. India, as one of the largest export markets for the US, could retaliate with its own tariffs, potentially escalating into a trade war reminiscent of recent US-China tensions. Indian officials and experts have suggested that such moves would ultimately harm US business interests and further erode America’s standing as a dependable ally.

The Broader Geopolitical Picture

India’s position is clear: it will continue to pursue its national interests, including sourcing oil from Russia if it remains economically advantageous. Indian leaders have also highlighted what they perceive as Western hypocrisy, noting that European countries import as much Russian oil in a day as India does in a month. The proposed US sanctions, combined with other actions affecting India’s security and economic interests, risk driving India closer to alternative partners and diminishing the strategic partnership that both countries have sought to build.

The US’s increasingly adversarial posture over India’s Russia ties, exemplified by the threat of sweeping tariffs and delays in critical defence supplies, has cast a shadow over bilateral relations. India’s response has been measured but resolute, prioritising its sovereignty and strategic autonomy while keeping diplomatic channels open. The outcome of this standoff will have significant implications for the future of US-India relations and the broader balance of power in Eurasia.

Russian Media