The Indian Air Force (IAF) is at a pivotal juncture as it retires the last MiG-21 squadrons after more than six decades of service, marking a significant shift in its operational landscape.

The final decommissioning, scheduled for September 19, 2025, at Chandigarh, will reduce IAF’s fighter squadron count from 31 to just 29, dramatically below the sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons.

Each squadron typically has 16–18 jets, and this decline brings IAF’s force level distressingly close to that of Pakistan, with 25 squadrons, while China possesses about 66 squadrons and over 1,900 fighters, including more than 1,300 fourth-generation aircraft as per recent U.S. Department of Defence assessments.

The MiG-21, first inducted from the Soviet Union post-1962 Indo-China war, became the IAF’s first non-western and supersonic fighter, forming the backbone of India's air defence for decades. Over 700 to 872 MiG-21s were incorporated, the majority manufactured under license by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

These jets were pivotal in India’s major conflicts: the 1965 and 1971 wars with Pakistan, the 1999 Kargil conflict, and notable engagements such as the 2019 aerial duel after the Balakot strikes. However, the fleet suffered over 500 crashes, earning the moniker “flying coffin,” leading to more than 170 pilot fatalities over six decades. Until 2008, the MiG-21 was also used for advanced pilot training, underlining both its utility and the limitations it imposed on modernization.

With their retirement, the MiG-29 becomes the only actively serving MiG in the IAF, joined by Russian-origin Su-30MKIs as the mainstays. The IAF’s remaining Soviet-era fighters—early Jaguars, Mirage-2000s and even MiG-29s—are also due for phase-out by the decade’s end, further compounding the force shortfall.

While 260 of 272 procured Su-30MKIs remain operational, plans exist for their significant upgrade; a December 2024 contract for 12 new Su-30MKIs aims to offset attrition losses.

The indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) program is critical for fleet replenishment. Two TEJAS MK-1 squadrons are operational, but the larger induction of the more capable MK-1A variant has faced chronic hurdles.

A ₹48,000 crore contract for 83 TEJAS MK-1As stipulated annual deliveries of at least 16 starting March 2024, but as of August 2025, not a single aircraft has been delivered due to supply chain and engine procurement delays.

Eight jets are now expected in this fiscal year, and HAL aims to scale up production to 24 annually. Furthermore, another deal for 97 additional TEJAS MK-1A fighters, valued at ₹67,000 crore, is in negotiation. The TEJAS MK-2, designed to eventually replace Mirage 2000s, MiG-29s, and Jaguars, is targeted for a 2026 first flight.

These programs are “extremely critical,” as the IAF Chief stated, given the need to induct 35–40 jets yearly over the coming decade to restore numerical parity.

To address its modernisation lag, the IAF has outlined an ambitious plan to induct more than 600 fighters over two decades. Projections include at least 180 TEJAS MK-1A, over 120 TEJAS MK-2, 114 medium-role fighters (MRFA), and at least 120 of the indigenous fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, the execution of this roadmap turns on timely production, industrial scale-up, and flawless supply of engines—areas where historical delays have imposed severe costs.

On the advanced fighter front, the IAF is considering the interim import of a small batch of fifth-generation fighters—either the Russian Su-57 or the US F-35—as the AMCA program advances, although negotiations remain preliminary and highly sensitive.

The AMCA itself is to be developed in phases: Mk1 with GE414 engines, and subsequent Mk2 variants with an even more powerful, co-developed 110KN engine. Private sector participation is actively being solicited for AMCA’s industrial rollout, with HAL among the bidders—a marked departure from past practices. Commercial negotiations with General Electric are also ongoing for license production of F414 engines for TEJAS MK-2.

Meanwhile, the MRFA deal, for which requests for information went out in 2019, has seen no significant progress, largely due to the high costs, protracted timelines, and competition with parallel indigenous programs.

Additionally, the IAF is planning to expand its unmanned capability, with proposed acquisition of 30–50 UAVs for specific combat roles within five years, as part of a broader push into network-centric operations.

The looming gap in combat aircraft numbers poses severe operational risks in view of the evolving regional security calculus, especially given China’s and Pakistan’s rapid fighter acquisitions.

Unless both domestic manufacturing bottlenecks and procurement policies are urgently addressed, there is a likelihood that the IAF’s squadron strength could erode further before genuine recovery, even making the revised target of 35–36 squadrons by 2035 difficult. This underscores the imperative of expediting indigenous programs, resolving logistical bottlenecks, and, where necessary, leveraging short-term imports as a strategic stopgap.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)