A recent $41-million contract modification awarded to Raytheon by the U.S. Department of Defence has sparked debate about potential arms transfers to Pakistan.

The order, dated September 30, specifically lists Pakistan among 35 nations eligible for the purchase or upgrade of the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-To-Air Missile (AMRAAM) system under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) framework.

However, a detailed examination suggests the contract’s low monetary value likely represents a standard system upgrade instead of a new missile acquisition.

The $41 million allocation covers the AMRAAM’s C8 and D3 variants — advanced models with updated guidance and range enhancements. Given the typical unit cost of a single AMRAAM being approximately $2 million, such a small budget cannot accommodate procurement of new missiles in any significant quantity.

Instead, analysts suggest the funds are intended for software upgrades, component improvements, and limited refurbishment of Pakistan’s existing inventory of AIM-120C-series missiles.

Pakistan acquired its AMRAAMs in previous FMS packages linked to its F-16 Block-52 and upgraded F-16 MLU fighter fleets. These missiles were notably used during the 2019 Balakot conflict when Pakistan’s F-16s attempted engagement with Indian aircraft. Since then, Islamabad’s operational reliance on the AIM-120 system has persisted, though its integration is limited to U.S.-supplied F-16 platforms due to technology and export restrictions.

The Pentagon’s recent document grouping 35 foreign recipients under a single umbrella contract is a standard practice for long-term sustainment programs managed by Raytheon Missiles & Defence. Under this list, all participating countries periodically fund upgrades for electronic components, seeker processors, and software enhancements across multiple AMRAAM batches. Pakistan’s inclusion in such updates is thus routine, ensuring interoperability and extending missile life rather than implying a new arms delivery.

Following the $41 million modification, an additional $11.2 million Pentagon order was disclosed for specific obsolescence management of the AMRAAM series. This portion of the program aims to modernise aging processors, replace outdated components, and align performance with current-generation AIM-120D standards. The combined contracts strengthen Raytheon’s ongoing maintenance cycle for the global AMRAAM user community rather than signifying new production meant exclusively for Pakistan.

Over the last three years, Pakistan’s air combat inventory has increasingly pivoted toward Chinese-origin missiles such as the PL-12 and PL-15, integrated on its JF-17 and J-10C fighters. These systems are reportedly cheaper and, in the case of the PL-15, capable of longer engagement ranges than the American AIM-120C. This makes large-scale new U.S. purchases unlikely, further supporting the argument that the current $41 million package is confined to sustainment and system-level upgrades.

While the notification initially raised concerns in New Delhi and defence circles regarding renewed U.S. arms activity in Pakistan, the limited scope and low contract value reflect a continuation of established support arrangements rather than geopolitical signalling. The upgrades ensure Pakistan can maintain its F-16 fleet’s operational status under standard end-user agreements, without introducing enhanced offensive capabilities or new hardware deliveries that could alter regional balances.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)