India’s naval planners stand at a decisive juncture — balancing immediate operational needs with long-term technological gains — as the submarine acquisition debate intensifies. The choice is clear but complex: fast-tracked French Scorpene builds or advanced German stealth submarines under Project-75(I).

What started as a ₹43,000 crore plan over a decade ago has surged past ₹70,000 crore. Inflation, technology upgrades, and currency volatility have turned Project-75(I) into India’s most expensive defense procurement. The financial escalation adds pressure on India’s already stretched underwater modernisation timeline.

The Scorpene option offers continuity, logistical ease, and faster delivery. With MDL’s assembly line already tested through six Kalvari-class submarines built with France’s Naval Group, India could induct three more Scorpenes within six years of contract signing. This ensures minimal disruption to the Navy’s operational strength, leveraging existing expertise and infrastructure.

The German path via ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems is technologically superior but slower. The proposed P-75(I) boats promise a larger design, land-attack cruise missile capability, and, crucially, a sea-proven Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system. This technology allows submarines to stay submerged for over two weeks — a game-changer for blue-water operations. However, the first unit’s delivery could take up to a decade, considering India’s lengthy procurement cycle.

India’s submarine fleet currently comprises 17 conventional and 3 nuclear-powered submarines — one leased from Russia. A sizeable fraction of the conventional fleet is over 30 years old, with several units under refit. Between now and 2032, up to eight submarines could be decommissioned, drastically reducing active underwater strength during a critical strategic window.

Beijing’s naval expansion, now boasting about 70 submarines, has tilted the Indo-Pacific undersea power balance. Meanwhile, Pakistan, backed by China’s shipyards, is acquiring eight Hangor-class submarines in a $5 billion deal. Three have already been delivered, two of them launched in 2024 and another in August 2025. By the mid-2030s, Pakistan could field a fleet rivalling India’s in stealth capabilities, supported by Chinese-supplied modern frigates.

To bridge gaps, India plans to retrofit the first three Scorpenes — INS Kalvari, Khanderi, and Karanj — with DRDO’s indigenous AIP systems between 2030 and 2035. Each refit, or “jumbo-isation,” takes nearly three years, sidelining the boats during the process. This temporarily shrinks the available fleet even as regional threats expand.

India’s maritime partnership with France runs deeper than contracts. The July 2023 announcement by Prime Minister Modi in Paris to build three more Scorpenes was as strategic as it was industrial. 

Supported by President Macron, the collaboration extends to co-fabrication for export under a 2023 MoU — strengthening India’s Make in India initiative while creating a potential submarine export hub at MDL.

Strategically, France’s steadfast support for India — especially during global sanctions and crises — weighs heavily on New Delhi’s decision-making compared to Europe’s fluctuating defence postures.

TKMS, meanwhile, sees India’s rise as both a market and a partner. CEO Oliver Burkhard emphasised that India is poised to become a “global submarine technology and manufacturing center.” Beyond offsets and contracts, Germany envisions a long-term technology-sharing model aligned with India’s aspiration for self-reliance in advanced defence manufacturing.

Ultimately, Project-75(I) offers depth, range, and stealth that India’s future Navy demands — but its payoff lies a decade away. The French expansion option delivers quicker reinforcement, buying time but not necessarily technological edge. The dilemma pits “speed and familiarity” against “precision and endurance.”

India’s final choice will determine not just how fast it strengthens its fleet, but how deep it can dominate the contested Indo-Pacific waters in the years ahead.

Agencies