Renewed speculation about India finalising an export deal for Su-30MKI fighter jets with Armenia has captured attention once more.

Despite headlines suggesting negotiations are reaching closure, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) continues to downplay the reports, stating there has been no formal directive from the Ministry of Defence.

HAL officials have reiterated their position that no official communication regarding a deal with Armenia has been received. This stance comes amid a flurry of media stories, coinciding with the inauguration of HAL’s new Light Combat Aircraft facility in Nashik. While the timing has fuelled speculation, HAL maintains a cautious posture.

The Su-30MKI, a Russian-designed multirole fighter built under licence by HAL since 2000, remains a cornerstone of India’s air force. Over 220 airframes have been assembled in-country from kits and domestic production, demonstrating India’s competence in large-scale fighter manufacturing.

Talks of a significant $2.5–3 billion contract for Armenia continue to resurface every few months, often citing unnamed sources. These reports now speculate possible delivery schedules from 2027 onwards, though official confirmation remains elusive.

Defence ministry representatives in Delhi have commented only in general terms. They confirm that several nations are in dialogue with India over defence platforms but refuse to provide details or confirm agreements that are not yet signed.

Armenia’s growing defence relationship with India is undisputable. Past deals have seen Armenia procure advanced Indian systems including the Pinaka rockets, Swathi radars, and ATAGS howitzers—marking a clear shift from its traditional Russian suppliers.

Yerevan has already inducted four Russian-built Su-30SM jets but faces operational challenges due to maintenance and missile compatibility issues. This predicament increases Armenia’s interest in the Su-30MKI, which offers advanced upgrades and indigenous systems.

A potential export variant could feature the Uttam AESA radar, Astra BVR missiles, and enhanced electronic warfare capabilities. Indian-developed avionics would provide Armenia with superior situational awareness and combat flexibility compared to legacy Russian models.

Security dynamics in the South Caucasus supply urgency to Armenia’s plans. Azerbaijan has modernised its air fleet, notably acquiring JF-17C Block-III jets from Pakistan equipped with cutting-edge sensors and missiles. Armenia’s vulnerability along the border remains pronounced, notwithstanding recent peace overtures.

For India, exporting the Su-30MKI would be a transformative achievement, moving beyond the sale of subsystems to a complete frontline fighter. Such an order would amplify HAL’s reputation and showcase India’s ascent as a capable aerospace exporter on the global stage.

HAL, however, faces capacity challenges. It is currently fulfilling 12 additional Su-30MKI orders for the Indian Air Force, alongside preparations for the ‘Super Sukhoi’ upgrade program. Meeting any export commitments would necessitate expanding production bandwidth.

A key technical consideration is the Russian-made AL-31F engine powering the Su-30MKI. While robust, the engine is costly and logistically demanding. India has been evaluating alternatives such as the AL-41F1S, which promises greater reliability and lifespan. HAL’s Koraput division is advancing local overhaul expertise to support long-term maintenance needs and bolster export viability.

Strategically, Armenia seeks more reliable partners as Russia’s support wanes due to wider geopolitical distractions. India, meanwhile, eyes a foothold in the Caucasus for its aerospace ambitions, positioning itself as a credible supplier beyond its traditional markets.

Despite the persistent talk, neither HAL nor India’s Ministry of Defence is ready to confirm any agreement. If signed, the fighter jet deal would set a new benchmark for Indian defence exports and revitalise Armenia’s air power. Until then, the prospect of Su-30MKIs in Yerevan remains a tale of speculation — awaiting official clearance for take‑off.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)