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United States President Donald Trump announced that he is considering visiting India in 2026 following an invitation from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Speaking from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said that discussions on a comprehensive trade agreement with India were progressing well and described Modi as a “good person” and “a friend.”

When asked by reporters whether he would travel to India next year, Trump smiled and replied affirmatively, saying the possibility was strong. He emphasised that communication between both leaders had remained regular and that economic ties were deepening despite some policy differences.

Trump once again claimed credit for averting a potential conflict between India and Pakistan. He asserted that both countries were on the verge of war and that his threat to impose tariffs led to a quick resolution. According to him, “eight planes were shot down” during an escalation phase, but trade pressure brought the situation under control within 24 hours.

He added that tariffs had helped end “five or six of eight wars,” positioning economic leverage as a key tool of American diplomacy under his leadership.

Reports from the New York Times indicated that Trump had earlier declined to attend this year’s Quad Summit in India, citing ongoing tariff measures imposed on New Delhi for continued purchases of Russian crude. The White House at the time had pressed India to scale back its imports from Moscow as part of a broader sanctions framework targeting Russia’s oil revenue.

On 29 October, at the APEC CEO Summit in South Korea, Trump referred to Prime Minister Modi as “the best-looking person” in a light-hearted tone. He reiterated optimism over an impending trade deal between the two nations and again mentioned his role in mediating between India and Pakistan. Trump claimed that his threat of a 250 per cent tariff had led both sides to agree to a ceasefire.

Earlier, on 15 October, Trump stated that Modi had assured him India would reduce oil imports from Russia. The President said he had been dissatisfied with India’s purchases but acknowledged Modi’s commitment to adjust policies. Trump revealed that US Ambassador-designate Sergio Gor had recently met Modi, reporting that the Prime Minister had expressed strong goodwill towards the United States.

India's Official Response: The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) swiftly rejected Trump’s claims of direct discussions between the two leaders. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal clarified that there had been “no recent conversation” between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump.

He affirmed that India’s energy import decisions were guided solely by national interests, focusing on price stability and supply security. Jaiswal stressed that India had consistently diversified its energy sources and expanded US oil purchases over the past decade.

As part of Washington’s wider effort to curtail Moscow’s oil revenue, the Trump administration has imposed multiple tariff measures on India. The President confirmed that a total of 50 tariffs were in place, including a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff and another 25 per cent penalty linked to Russian oil imports.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said these actions were designed to exert secondary pressure on Russia and support diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Despite US pressure, Russia remains India’s largest oil supplier. Commodity tracker Kpler reported that Russian shipments accounted for 34 per cent of India’s oil imports in September 2025, though this represented a 10 per cent decline compared to earlier months.

In August, India imported around 1.72 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia, dropping slightly to 1.61 million bpd in September. Analysts attributed this reduction to both diversification efforts and government refineries scaling back purchases.

Public sector companies such as IOC, BPCL, and HPCL cut Russian imports by more than 45 per cent, reducing volumes from 1.1 million bpd in June to approximately 600,000 bpd in September. Conversely, private refiners like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy increased their imports to maintain steady domestic supply levels.

Reliance imported about 850,000 bpd, while Nayara Energy handled nearly 400,000 bpd.

India’s pivot towards discounted Russian oil began in 2022 after sanctions from Europe redirected Moscow’s energy exports towards Asia. From a negligible share of 0.2 per cent in 2021, Russian crude became India’s largest supply source by 2025, covering roughly 37 per cent of national demand.

India benefits from several factors: competitive pricing compared with Western suppliers, binding long-term contracts, and the stabilising effect on global oil markets. Discounts that once reached 30 dollars per barrel have narrowed to 3–6 dollars, yet remain significant enough to sustain commercial interest.

Reliance’s 10-year agreement with Russian suppliers, signed in December 2024 for half a million barrels daily, exemplifies these long-term commitments. Analysts warn that abruptly severing such deals could disrupt both Indian supply chains and global pricing stability.

Alternative Sources of Oil For India: India meets over 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement through imports. Outside of Russia, the main suppliers include Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, supplemented by emerging sources in Africa and Latin America.

Iraq supplies about 21 per cent of India’s imports and remains the second-largest oil source.
Saudi Arabia accounts for approximately 15 per cent, averaging around 700,000 bpd.
United States exports to India increased sharply in 2025, reaching a 7 per cent share of India’s total imports by July.
African nations such as Nigeria have become new suppliers for state-run refiners seeking diversification.
Other sources, including Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude and oil from Guyana, Brazil, and several Latin American countries, have been partially replacing Russian volumes despite higher costs.

President Trump’s proposed visit to India in 2026 could redefine momentum in bilateral relations, especially amid trade negotiations and energy diversification efforts. While the two nations continue to navigate policy differences over sanctions and tariffs, both leaderships have maintained mutual goodwill and strategic engagement aimed at long-term economic and security cooperation.