A Swiss military analysis has concluded that India maintained escalation dominance throughout Operation Sindoor, the intense air conflict with Pakistan from 7 to 10 May 2025.

The report, authored by Adrien Fontanellaz and published by the Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM) in Pully, Switzerland, praises New Delhi's ability to dictate the tempo and ceiling of the confrontation.

This four-day engagement followed the Pahalgam terrorist attack, prompting a calculated Indian response against Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba targets deep in Pakistani territory. Prime Minister Narendra Modi authorised precision strikes while granting the armed forces flexibility in managing escalation risks.

Indian forces employed long-range weapons, keeping most aircraft safely within national airspace. This approach signalled resolve without unnecessary exposure. Pre-conflict preparations, including late-April counter-drone exercises, proved pivotal against Pakistan's subsequent assaults.

Pakistan responded with waves of drones, artillery rockets, missiles, and limited air sorties targeting Indian air bases and defences. Yet the CHPM report determines these efforts failed to penetrate India's robust layered air-defence network.

Indian surface-to-air missile units excelled through mobility and emission control, frequently relocating to evade targeting. Incoming threats were largely intercepted, jammed, or neutralised, preserving operational integrity.

Critically, no verified evidence emerged of any Indian S-400 battery being destroyed. Pakistan claimed a JF-17 downed an Adampur S-400 with CM-400AKG missiles, but independent satellite imagery and open-source intelligence refute this. The systems remained active, restricting Pakistani aircraft to standoff ranges.

India's actions also eroded Pakistan's situational awareness. Strikes and electronic warfare silenced or curtailed several Pakistani radars, compelling them to reduce emissions. Airborne early-warning assets and networked targeting yielded no enduring edge.

As the conflict unfolded, Pakistan's coordination of air and drone operations faltered noticeably. The report attributes this degradation to Indian deep-strike effects and superior electronic measures.

The turning point arrived on 10 May with India's salvo of BrahMos, SCALP-EG, and Rampage missiles. Launched from Indian airspace, these targeted Pakistani air bases up to 200 kilometres inside enemy territory, hitting command nodes, drone facilities, hangars, and runways.

These precision blows crippled Pakistan's capacity for sustained operations. Strikes neared sensitive sites, underscoring India's threshold-testing prowess, yet remained calibrated to avoid nuclear red lines.

De-escalation ensued swiftly. Pakistan offered no equivalent riposte, and the cycle halted without third-party intervention. The report credits India's blend of capability and restraint for this stabilisation.

Both sides inflated claims of aircraft losses—a hallmark of modern warfare reliant on long-range shots, electronic disruption, and hazy damage assessments. Post-adjustment, India inflicted deeper, longer-lasting constraints on Pakistan.

CHPM frames Operation Sindoor as the inaugural high-intensity, network-centric air war between nuclear powers. India secured a distinct operational upper hand by safeguarding assets, eroding foe capabilities, shaping escalation, and validating deep-strike reach.

The institution's neutrality bolsters the analysis. Founded in 1969, CHPM operates independently, with oversight from experts like retired Swiss Air Force Major General Claude Meier and nuclear specialist Arthur Lüsenti.

This verdict challenges narratives of parity, highlighting India's doctrinal evolution from past crises. Pre-emptive drills and integrated defences turned potential vulnerabilities into strengths.

Pakistan's drone swarms and missile barrages exposed reliance on volume over precision, underscoring gaps in contested airspace penetration against peer defences.

India's S-400 resilience validated high-end procurement choices, constraining adversaries without direct exposure. Mobile tactics amplified static system effectiveness. Electronic warfare emerged as a force multiplier, blinding sensors and fracturing command chains. India's pre-positioned effects outpaced Pakistan's adaptations.

The 10 May strikes exemplified 'escalation dominance': imposing costs while holding de-escalation levers. Proximity to strategic assets telegraphed intent without overreach. Exaggerated loss tallies reflect information warfare's role, where claims serve domestic audiences over battlefield truth. Open-source verification proved indispensable.

As the first nuclear peer air clash, Sindoor offers global lessons in network-centric operations under nuclear shadows. Restraint amid intensity preserved stability. India's posture—offensive reach with defensive poise—redefined South Asian deterrence. It signals readiness for graduated responses, deterring adventurism.

Pakistan faces imperatives to bolster air defences, radar resilience, and strike accuracy. Overreliance on Chinese platforms like JF-17 demands scrutiny.

For India, successes affirm 'Make in India' strides in missiles like BrahMos and indigenous integration. Yet gaps in drone defence and EW sustainment warrant investment.

Operation Sindoor cements India's strategic maturity, controlling escalation in a domain where miscalculation risks catastrophe.

Based On Sunday Guardian Report